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The Production and Consumption of Commercial Real Estate Market Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Gallimore

    (School of the Built environment, Nottingham Trent University)

  • Pat McAllister

    (Department of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading)

Abstract

Whilst the vast majority of the research on property market forecasting has concentrated on statistical methods of forecasting future rents, this report investigates the process of property market forecast production with particular reference to the level and effect of judgemental intervention in this process. Expectations of future investment performance at the levels of individual asset, sector, region, country and asset class are crucial to stock selection and tactical and strategic asset allocation decisions. Given their centrality to investment performance, we focus on the process by which forecasts of rents and yields are generated and expectations formed. A review of the wider literature on forecasting suggests that there are strong grounds to expect that forecast outcomes are not the result of purely mechanical calculations.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Gallimore & Pat McAllister, 2005. "The Production and Consumption of Commercial Real Estate Market Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdg:repxwp:rep-wp2005-06
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    File URL: http://www.henley.reading.ac.uk/rep/fulltxt/0605.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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