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An Evaluation Of The Performance Of UK Real Estate Forecasters

Author

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  • Pat McAllister

    (Department of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading)

  • Graeme Newell
  • George Matysiak

    (Department of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading)

Abstract

Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. It compares the performance of real estate forecasters with non-real estate forecasters. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters and a similar survey of macro-economic and capital market forecasters, these forecasts are compared with actual performance to assess a number of forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that both groups are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist. The strongest finding is that forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding.

Suggested Citation

  • Pat McAllister & Graeme Newell & George Matysiak, 2005. "An Evaluation Of The Performance Of UK Real Estate Forecasters," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-23, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdg:repxwp:rep-wp2005-23
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    File URL: http://www.henley.reading.ac.uk/rep/fulltxt/2305.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dirk Brounen & Piet Eichholtz & David Ling, 2007. "Trading Intensity and Real Estate Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 449-474, November.

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