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An econometric analysis and forecasts of the office rental cycle in the Dublin area

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  • Eamonn D'Arcy
  • Tony McGough
  • Sotiris Tsolacos

Abstract

This paper presents an econometric investigation of office rent determination in Dublin, a small European market, over the twenty eight year period 1970-1997. Using a single equation specification based on demand and supply interactions, changes in real GDP lagged one period and changes in the office stock lagged three periods were found to be the most important determinants of changes in real rents in this market. When the forecasting adequacy of the estimated model was tested and compared with forecasts derived from commonly used alternative statistical methodologies, the forecasts based on the estimated model outperformed the alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Eamonn D'Arcy & Tony McGough & Sotiris Tsolacos, 1999. "An econometric analysis and forecasts of the office rental cycle in the Dublin area," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 309-321, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:16:y:1999:i:4:p:309-321
    DOI: 10.1080/095999199368067
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eddie Chi Man Hui & Ka Hung Yu, 2006. "Simulating Hong Kong’s Office Leasing Market via System Dynamics Modeling," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 23-43.
    2. Nikos Kapitsinis, 2019. "A review of the current business rates scheme in Wales and the effects of a potential local retention," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 34(1), pages 10-32, February.
    3. Richard Malle, 2010. "Un modèle à équations simultanées du cycle des bureaux en région parisienne," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 194(3), pages 93-108.
    4. V. Atilla Oven & Dilek Pekdemir, 2006. "Perceptions of office rent determinants by real estate brokerage firms in Istanbul," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 557-576, May.
    5. Kwabena Mintah & Woon-Weng Wong & Peng Yew Wong, 2020. "Cross Border Real Estate Investments and Commercial Office Property Market Performance: Evidence from Australia," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 211-234.
    6. Paul Gallimore & Patrick McAllister, 2004. "Expert judgement in the Processes of Commercial Property Market Forecasting," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2004-11, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    7. McCartney, John, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Development Cycles in the Dublin Office Market 1976-2007," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2008(4-Winter), pages 68-92.
    8. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean, 2008. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2008," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20084, march.
    9. Kwabena Mintah & Woon-Weng Wong & Peng Yew Wong, 2020. "Cross Border Real Estate Investments and Commercial Office Property Market Performance: Evidence from Australia," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 23(2), pages 837-860.
    10. Dirk Brounen & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Local Office Rent Dynamics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 385-402, November.
    11. Michael White & Qiulin Ke, 2014. "Investigating the dynamics of, and interactions between, Shanghai office submarkets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 26-44, March.
    12. Paul Gallimore & Pat McAllister, 2005. "The Production and Consumption of Commercial Real Estate Market Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    13. John McCartney, 2012. "Short and long-run rent adjustment in the Dublin office market," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 201-226, April.
    14. Kieran Farrelly & Ben Sanderson, 2005. "Modelling Regime Shifts in the City of London Office Rental Cycle," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 325-344, December.
    15. Dirk Brounen & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Asymmetric Properties of Office Rent Adjustment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 336-358, October.
    16. Arvydas Jadevicius & Brian Sloan & Andrew Brown, 2012. "Examination of property forecasting models - accuracy and its improvement through combination forecasting," ERES eres2012_082, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

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