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Term premium and rate expectation estimates from the South African yield curve

Author

Listed:
  • Luchelle Soobyah
  • Daan Steenkamp

Abstract

Long-term interest rates have two major drivers: expectations of future short term interest rates and the term premium. We show that the term premium embedded in South African long rates has risen over the last year and is significantly higher than in advanced economies like the United States. Our modelling results suggest that a higher term premium tends to have adverse impacts on domestic activity and the currency. Higher short rate expectations, on the other hand, tend to have the opposite effect on the economic slack, consistent with such expectations being informative about theoutlook for domestic growth and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Luchelle Soobyah & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Term premium and rate expectation estimates from the South African yield curve," Working Papers 9998, South African Reserve Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbz:wpaper:9998
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Michael Callaghan, 2019. "Expectations and the term premium in New Zealand long-term interest rates," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2019/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    7. Brian Bonis & Jane E. Ihrig & Min Wei, 2017. "Projected Evolution of the SOMA Portfolio and the 10-Year Treasury Term Premium Effect," FEDS Notes 2017-09-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Andrew Blake & Garreth Rule & Ole Rummel, 2015. "Inflation targeting and term premia estimates for Latin America," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 24(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Benjamin H Cohen & Peter Hördahl & Dora Xia, 2018. "Term premia: models and some stylised facts," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2022. "A banklevel analysis of interest rate passthrough in South Africa," Working Papers 11027, South African Reserve Bank.
    2. Hylton Hollander, 2024. "Debt-financed fiscal stimulus in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 87-112, January.
    3. Mpho Rapapali & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Developments in bank funding costs in South Africa," Working Papers 9818, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. Luchelle Soobyah & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 2001 A measure of South African sovereign risk premium June 2020," Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 10009, South African Reserve Bank.
    5. Luchelle Soobyah & Nicola Viegi, 2022. "CanNationalTreasurydocontractionarymonetarypolicy," Working Papers 11031, South African Reserve Bank.
    6. Steenkamp, Daan & Erasmus, Ruan, 2022. "Term premium estimation for South Africa," MPRA Paper 114895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Rhea Choudhary, 2022. "Analysing the spillover effects of the South African Reserve Banks bond purchase programme," Working Papers 11025, South African Reserve Bank.
    8. Havemann, Roy & Hollander, Hylton, 2024. "Fiscal policy in times of fiscal stress (or what to do when r > g)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 1020-1054.
    9. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Jeffrey Rakgalakane & Luchelle Soobyah Rudi Steinbach, 2023. "EnhancingtheQuarterlyProjectionModel," Working Papers 11044, South African Reserve Bank.
    10. Tumisang Loate & Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "Sailing into the Wind evaluating the near future of Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Papers 11006, South African Reserve Bank.
    11. Tumisang Loate & Romain Houssa & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "The macroeconomic effect of fiscal policy in South Africa: A narrative analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-156, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Tim Olds & Daan Steenkamp, 2021. "Estimates of banklevel funding costs in South Africa," Working Papers 11005, South African Reserve Bank.
    13. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2020. "Is the Phillips curve framework still useful for understanding inflation dynamics in South Africa," Working Papers 10142, South African Reserve Bank.
    14. Rhea Choudhary, 2022. "AnalysingthespillovereffectsoftheSouthAfricanReserveBanksbondpurchaseprogramme," Working Papers 11039, South African Reserve Bank.
    15. Patrick Honohan & Athanasios Orphanides, 2022. "Monetary policy in South Africa, 2007-21," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Jeffrey Rakgalakane & Luchelle Soobyah & Rudi Steinbach, 2023. "Enhancing the Quarterly Projection Model," Working Papers 11048, South African Reserve Bank.

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