IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rbz/wpaper/9998.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Term premium and rate expectation estimates from the South African yield curve

Author

Listed:
  • Luchelle Soobyah
  • Daan Steenkamp

Abstract

Long-term interest rates have two major drivers: expectations of future short term interest rates and the term premium. We show that the term premium embedded in South African long rates has risen over the last year and is significantly higher than in advanced economies like the United States. Our modelling results suggest that a higher term premium tends to have adverse impacts on domestic activity and the currency. Higher short rate expectations, on the other hand, tend to have the opposite effect on the economic slack, consistent with such expectations being informative about theoutlook for domestic growth and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Luchelle Soobyah & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Term premium and rate expectation estimates from the South African yield curve," Working Papers 9998, South African Reserve Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbz:wpaper:9998
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/working-papers/2020/9998/WP-2003.pdf
    File Function: Revision
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
    2. Viktoria Hnatkovska & Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2016. "The Exchange Rate Response to Monetary Policy Innovations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 137-181, April.
    3. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    4. Manfred Gilli & Stefan Große & Enrico Schumann, 2010. "Calibrating the Nelson–Siegel–Svensson model," Working Papers 031, COMISEF.
    5. Michael Callaghan, 2019. "Expectations and the term premium in New Zealand long-term interest rates," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2019/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Brian Bonis & Jane E. Ihrig & Min Wei, 2017. "Projected Evolution of the SOMA Portfolio and the 10-Year Treasury Term Premium Effect," FEDS Notes 2017-09-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Andrew Blake & Garreth Rule & Ole Rummel, 2015. "Inflation targeting and term premia estimates for Latin America," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 24(1), pages 1-21, December.
    8. Benjamin H Cohen & Peter Hördahl & Dora Xia, 2018. "Term premia: models and some stylised facts," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hylton Hollander, 2024. "Debt-financed fiscal stimulus in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 87-112, January.
    2. Steenkamp, Daan & Erasmus, Ruan, 2022. "Term premium estimation for South Africa," MPRA Paper 114895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Havemann, Roy & Hollander, Hylton, 2024. "Fiscal policy in times of fiscal stress (or what to do when r > g)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 1020-1054.
    4. Tumisang Loate & Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "Sailing into the Wind evaluating the near future of Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Papers 11006, South African Reserve Bank.
    5. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2020. "Is the Phillips curve framework still useful for understanding inflation dynamics in South Africa," Working Papers 10142, South African Reserve Bank.
    6. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Steenkamp, Daan & van Jaarsveld, Rossouw, 2024. "A bank-level analysis of interest rate pass-through in South Africa," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Luchelle Soobyah & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 2001 A measure of South African sovereign risk premium June 2020," Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 10009, South African Reserve Bank.
    8. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Jeffrey Rakgalakane & Luchelle Soobyah Rudi Steinbach, 2023. "EnhancingtheQuarterlyProjectionModel," Working Papers 11044, South African Reserve Bank.
    9. Mpho Rapapali & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Developments in bank funding costs in South Africa," Working Papers 9818, South African Reserve Bank.
    10. Luchelle Soobyah & Nicola Viegi, 2022. "CanNationalTreasurydocontractionarymonetarypolicy," Working Papers 11031, South African Reserve Bank.
    11. Rhea Choudhary, 2022. "Analysing the spillover effects of the South African Reserve Banks bond purchase programme," Working Papers 11025, South African Reserve Bank.
    12. Tumisang Loate & Romain Houssa & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "The macroeconomic effect of fiscal policy in South Africa: A narrative analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-156, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Daan Steenkamp & Tim Olds, 2021. "Estimates of bank-level funding costs in South Africa," Working Papers 857, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    14. Patrick Honohan & Athanasios Orphanides, 2022. "Monetary policy in South Africa, 2007-21," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Jeffrey Rakgalakane & Luchelle Soobyah & Rudi Steinbach, 2023. "Enhancing the Quarterly Projection Model," Working Papers 11048, South African Reserve Bank.
    16. Rhea Choudhary, 2022. "AnalysingthespillovereffectsoftheSouthAfricanReserveBanksbondpurchaseprogramme," Working Papers 11039, South African Reserve Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    2. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    4. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    5. Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2016. "Nominal term structure and term premia: evidence from Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(29), pages 2721-2735, June.
    6. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and the Term Premium as a Monetary Policy Instrument," Working Papers halshs-02359503, HAL.
    7. Eric McCoy, 2019. "A Calibration of the Term Premia to the Euro Area," European Economy - Discussion Papers 110, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Michael Callaghan & Enzo Cassino & Tugrul Vehbi & Benjamin Wong, 2019. "Opening the toolbox: how does the Reserve Bank analyse the world?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 82, pages 1-14, April.
    9. Eran Raviv, 2013. "Prediction Bias Correction for Dynamic Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-041/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    11. Petter Eilif de Lange & Morten Risstad & Kristian Semmen & Sjur Westgaard, 2023. "Term Premia in Norwegian Interest Rate Swaps," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, March.
    12. Valentin Jouvanceau & Ieva Mikaliunaite, 2020. "Euro Area Monetary Communications: Excess Sensitivity and Perception Shocks," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 79, Bank of Lithuania.
    13. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A re-evaluation of the term spread as a leading indicator," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 476-492.
    15. Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Term Premium as a Leading Macroeconomic Indicator," Working Papers 201613, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Elizondo Rocío, 2023. "The Three Intelligible Factors of the Yield Curve in Mexico," Working Papers 2023-13, Banco de México.
    17. Sebastián Claro & Carola Moreno, 2015. "Long-term rates and the term premium: evidence from Chile," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), What do new forms of finance mean for EM central banks?, volume 83, pages 97-112, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Vázquez, Jesús & Aguilar, Pablo, 2021. "Adaptive learning with term structure information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    19. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Mirko Abbritti & Juan Equiza & Antonio Moreno & Tommaso Trani, 2024. "Downturns and changes in the yield slope," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 673-701, April.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rbz:wpaper:9998. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jessica VanWyk (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.