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Term premium estimation for South Africa

Author

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  • Steenkamp, Daan
  • Erasmus, Ruan

Abstract

This white paper decomposes sovereign yields into expectations of future average short term rates and a term premium. We estimate that the term premium in South African sovereign bonds is lower than after the onset of the COVID pandemic, but still meaningfully higher than its historical average. Codera uses these estimates to extract market expectations of monetary policy and signals relating to the inflation and economic growth outlook, as well as produce estimates of market perceptions of liquidity premia and sovereign credit risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Steenkamp, Daan & Erasmus, Ruan, 2022. "Term premium estimation for South Africa," MPRA Paper 114895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:114895
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/114895/1/MPRA_paper_114895.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    2. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4," CEPR Discussion Papers 1051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Svensson, L.E.O., 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Foreward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-1994," Papers 579, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    4. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
    5. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    6. Luchelle Soobyah & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Term premium and rate expectation estimates from the South African yield curve," Working Papers 9998, South African Reserve Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hylton Hollander, 2024. "Debt-financed fiscal stimulus in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 87-112, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    term premium;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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