IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rba/rbardp/rdp2012-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Chinese Urban Residential Construction to 2040

Author

Listed:
  • Leon Berkelmans

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Hao Wang

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

This paper projects Chinese urban residential construction out to 2040. The paper argues that the extraordinary growth of recent years will not continue, but that construction will stabilise at a high level. This augurs well for steel demand, especially as steel intensity is expected to increase. These projections are subject to upside and downside risks, which are discussed. In addition, this paper argues that official figures understate the extent of urban residential construction.

Suggested Citation

  • Leon Berkelmans & Hao Wang, 2012. "Chinese Urban Residential Construction to 2040," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2012-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/pdf/rdp2012-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isaac, Morna & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 507-521, February.
    2. Justin Yifu Lin, 2013. "Demystifying the Chinese Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 46(3), pages 259-268, September.
    3. Nicholas R. Lardy, 2012. "Sustaining China's Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6260, April.
    4. Chun-Chung Au & J. Vernon Henderson, 2006. "Are Chinese Cities Too Small?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(3), pages 549-576.
    5. Fujita, Masahisa & Mori, Tomoya & Henderson, J. Vernon & Kanemoto, Yoshitsugu, 2004. "Spatial distribution of economic activities in Japan and China," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 65, pages 2911-2977, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miss Mali Chivakul & Mr. Waikei R Lam & Xiaoguang Liu & Wojciech Maliszewski & Mr. Alfred Schipke, 2015. "Understanding Residential Real Estate in China," IMF Working Papers 2015/084, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Tim Robinson & Tim Atkin & Mark Caputo & Hao Wang, 2017. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes, Past and Present," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 291-315, November.
    3. Tim Atkin & Mark Caputo & Tim Robinson & Hao Wang, 2014. "Australia after the Terms of Trade Boom," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 55-62, March.
    4. Leon Berkelmans & Hao Wang, 2012. "Chinese Urban Residential Construction," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 21-26, September.
    5. Zhang, Qi & Xu, Jin & Wang, Yujie & Hasanbeigi, Ali & Zhang, Wei & Lu, Hongyou & Arens, Marlene, 2018. "Comprehensive assessment of energy conservation and CO2 emissions mitigation in China’s iron and steel industry based on dynamic material flows," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 251-265.
    6. Mark Kruger & Kun Mo & Benjamin Sawatzky, 2016. "The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices," Discussion Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    7. Patrick D’Arcy & Alexandra Veroude, 2014. "Housing Trends in China and India," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 63-68, March.
    8. Ross Kendall, 2014. "Economic linkages between New Zealand and China," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2014/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    9. M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    10. Tim Atkin & Ellis Connolly, 2013. "Australian Exports: Global Demand and the High Exchange Rate," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 1-10, June.
    11. Bielschowsky, Ricardo & da Rocha, Felipe Freitas, 2018. "China’s quest for natural resources in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    12. Guonan Ma & Ivan Roberts & Gerard Kelly, 2016. "A Rebalancing Chinese Economy: Challenges and International Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying, 2013. "Trends and development of steel demand in China: A bottom–up analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 407-415.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oshiro, Jun & Sato, Yasuhiro, 2021. "Industrial structure in urban accounting," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Zhao Zhao, 2017. "Spatial concentration of manufacturing firms in China," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96, pages 179-205, March.
    3. Bosker, Maarten & Brakman, Steven & Garretsen, Harry & Schramm, Marc, 2012. "Relaxing Hukou: Increased labor mobility and China’s economic geography," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 252-266.
    4. Desmet, Klaus & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2015. "The Geography of Development Within Countries," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1457-1517, Elsevier.
    5. Xing, Chunbing & Zhang, Junfu, 2017. "The preference for larger cities in China: Evidence from rural-urban migrants," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 72-90.
    6. Behrens, Kristian & Murata, Yasusada, 2009. "City size and the Henry George Theorem under monopolistic competition," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 228-235, March.
    7. Deng, Zhongqi & Qin, Ming & Song, Shunfeng, 2020. "Re-study on Chinese city size and policy formation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Alexandra SCHAFFAR, 2008. "Regional Income Inequality And Urbanisation Trends In China: 1978-2005," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 28, pages 87-110.
    9. Dean Hanink & Robert Cromley & Avraham Ebenstein, 2012. "Wage-based evidence of returns to external scale in China’s manufacturing: a spatial analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(1), pages 1-16, August.
    10. ZHANG, Hongyong, 2015. "How does agglomeration promote the product innovation of Chinese firms?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 105-120.
    11. Roberta Benini & He Liping, 2013. "Special issue on China: Re-thinking China’s economic transition and development in the post-crisis era," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 1-7, March.
    12. Xin Li & Kyung-Min Nam, 2017. "One country, two “urban” systems: focusing on bimodality in China’s city-size distribution," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 59(2), pages 427-452, September.
    13. Nishijima, Daisuke, 2017. "The role of technology, product lifetime, and energy efficiency in climate mitigation: A case study of air conditioners in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 340-347.
    14. Pierre-Philippe Combes & Sylvie Démurger & Shi Li, 2013. "Urbanisation and Migration Externalities in China," Working Papers 1303, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    15. Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer & Florian Mayneris, 2008. "Spatial Concentration and Firm-Level Productivity in France," Sciences Po publications 6858, Sciences Po.
    16. Emanuela Marrocu & Raffaele Paci & Stefano Usai, 2013. "Productivity Growth In The Old And New Europe: The Role Of Agglomeration Externalities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 418-442, August.
    17. Yanting Tang & Jinlong Gao & Wen Chen, 2022. "The Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Population in the Yangtze River Delta, China: An Urban Hierarchy Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, October.
    18. Douglas Gollin & David Lagakos & Michael E. Waugh, 2011. "The Agricultural Productivity Gap in Developing Countries," Working Papers 11-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    19. Lafourcade, Miren & Mion, Giordano, 2007. "Concentration, agglomeration and the size of plants," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 46-68, January.
    20. Chen, Han & Huang, Ye & Shen, Huizhong & Chen, Yilin & Ru, Muye & Chen, Yuanchen & Lin, Nan & Su, Shu & Zhuo, Shaojie & Zhong, Qirui & Wang, Xilong & Liu, Junfeng & Li, Bengang & Tao, Shu, 2016. "Modeling temporal variations in global residential energy consumption and pollutant emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 820-829.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; residential construction;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2012-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paula Drew (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.