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The Australian Phillips curve and more

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  • Ivan Kitov
  • Oleg Kitov

Abstract

A quantitative model is presented linking the rate of inflation and unemployment to the change in the level of labor force. The link between the involved variables is a linear one with all coefficients of individual and generalized models obtained empirically. To achieve the best fit between measured and predicted time series cumulative curves are used as a simplified version of the 1-D boundary elements method. All models for Australia are similar to those obtained for the US, France, Japan and other developed countries and thus validate the concept and related quantitative model.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2011. "The Australian Phillips curve and more," Papers 1102.1851, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1102.1851
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bårdsen Gunnar & Hurn Stanley & McHugh Zöe, 2012. "Asymmetric Unemployment Rate Dynamics in Australia," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, January.
    2. David Norman & Anthony Richards, 2010. "Modelling Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV, 2010. "Dynamics Of Unemployment And Inflation In Western Europe: Solution By The 1- D Boundary Elements Method," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(2(12)/Sum), pages 94-113.
    5. Daniel Buncic & Martin Melecky, 2008. "An Estimated New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
    7. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2010. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 185-209, June.
    8. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA," MPRA Paper 2734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone & Marileze van Zyl, 2003. "The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Neil Dias Karunaratne & Ramprasad Bhar, 2010. "Regime-Shifts & Post-Float Inflation Dynamics In Australia," Discussion Papers Series 405, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    11. Jamie Hall & Jarkko P. Jääskelä, 2011. "Inflation Volatility and Forecast Accuracy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 44(4), pages 404-417, December.
    12. Stephen Grenville, 1997. "The Evolution of Monetary Policy: From Money Targets to Inflation Targets," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 25(Win), pages 2-11.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. As we predicted in 2010,a longer deflation period has started in Australia
      by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics on 2017-01-13 20:26:00

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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