IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/201029.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Long-Run Impact of Inflation in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Kafayat Amusa

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria and South African Treasury, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Shaakira Karolia

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria and South African Treasury, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Beatrice D. Simo Kengne

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria and South African Treasury, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the hypothesis of long-run super-neutrality of money (LRSN) within the context of the South African economy. The long-run impact of inflation on the interest rate and subsequently, output is estimated by employing a trivariate structural vector autoregression model. The estimation results suggest that the hypothesis of LRSN cannot be rejected, thereby potentially supporting the arguments asserted by Sidrauski (1967).

Suggested Citation

  • Kafayat Amusa & Rangan Gupta & Shaakira Karolia & Beatrice D. Simo Kengne, 2010. "The Long-Run Impact of Inflation in South Africa," Working Papers 201029, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. H. Sonmez Atesoglu & Jamie Emerson, 2009. "Long-run monetary neutrality," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 2025-2036.
    3. Puah, Chin-Hong & Habibullah, M.S. & Abu Mansor, Shazali, 2008. "On the Long-Run Monetary Neutrality: Evidence from the SEACEN Countries," MPRA Paper 31762, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Testing long-run neutrality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 69-101.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Josine Uwilingiye, 2010. "Dynamic Time Inconsistency And The South African Reserve Bank," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(1), pages 76-88, March.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. João R. Faria & Francisco Galrão Carneiro, 2001. "Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 89-105, May.
    8. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2008. "Long-run inflation-unemployment dynamics: The Spanish Phillips curve and economic policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 279-300.
    9. Soderlind, Paul, 2001. "Monetary policy and the Fisher effect," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 491-495, July.
    10. Rangan Gupta & Josine Uwilingiye, 2012. "Comparing South African Inflation Volatility Across Monetary Policy Regimes: An Application of Saphe Cracking," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 46(1), pages 45-54, January-J.
    11. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "Identifying aggregate supply and demand shocks in South Africa," Working Papers 11/2007, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    12. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B. & Smith, Lance, 1987. "On the superneutrality of money in a stochastic dynamic macroeconomic model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 475-499, December.
    13. Guy Debelle & Miguel A Savastano & Paul R Masson & Sunil Sharma, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Framework for Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Issues 15, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    15. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "Economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-84, July.
    16. Geweke, John F, 1986. "The Superneutrality of Money in the United States: An Interpretation of the Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-21, January.
    17. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2004. "Long Run Neutrality and Superneutrality of Money: Aggregate and Sectoral Tests for Nicaragua," Macroeconomics 0402004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-353, July.
    19. repec:bla:ecorec:v:58:y:1982:i:163:p:386-94 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
    21. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
    22. Rangan Gupta & Josine Uwilingiye, 2010. "Evaluating the Welfare Cost of Inflation in a Monetary Endogenous Growth General Equilibrium Model: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 201002, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    23. Kirsten L. Ludi & Marc Ground, 2006. "Investigating the Bank-Lending Channel in South Africa: A VAR Approach," Working Papers 200604, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    24. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    25. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    26. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    27. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    28. Guy Debelle & Mr. Miguel A Savastano & Mr. Paul R Masson & Mr. Sunil Sharma, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Framework for Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Issues 1998/005, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Alex Bara & Gift Mugano & Pierre Le Roux, 2017. "Spatial Externality, Openness and Financial Development in SADC: Beyond the Multilateral Monetary Agreement," Working Papers 115, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    30. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-415, June.
    31. Wallace, Frederick H., 2005. "Long Run Money Neutrality: The Case of Guatemala," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 5, pages 127-138, Octubre.
    32. Rapach, David E, 2003. "International Evidence on the Long-Run Impact of Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 23-48, February.
    33. Jeffrey Carmichael, 1982. "Money and Growth: Some Old Theorems from a New Perspective," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 58(4), pages 386-394, December.
    34. Rangan Gupta & Charlotte du Toit, 2006. "Active versus Passive Policies of Unemployment: Growth and Public Finance Perspectives," Working Papers 200620, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    35. Singh, Kanhaiya & Kalirajan, Kaliappa, 2003. "The inflation-growth nexus in India: an empirical analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 377-396, June.
    36. Lastrapes, W. D., 1998. "International evidence on equity prices, interest rates and money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-406, June.
    37. Frederick H.Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2007. "Long Run Neutrality of Money in Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(2), pages 219-238, July-Dece.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda & Mampho P. Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2015. "DSGE model-based forecasting of modelled and nonmodelled inflation variables in South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 207-221, January.
    2. O. Evans, 2019. "Money, Inflation and Output in Nigeria and South Africa: Could Friedman and Schwartz Be Right?," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 392-406, July.
    3. Dube, Smile, 2016. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) and Inflation-Targeting (IT): Evidence from South Africa - Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting: evidenze dal Sud Africa," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(2), pages 121-150.
    4. Nasr, Adnen Ben & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ajmi, Ahdi N. & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé, 2015. "Causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty in South Africa: Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 46-68.
    5. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Mark E. Wohar, 2022. "Is Real Interest Rate a Monetary Phenomenon in Advanced Economies? Time-Varying Evidence from Over 700 Years of Data," Working Papers 202245, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Monique Reid & Christian Tipoy & Mulatu Zerihun, 2014. "Real interest rate persistence in South Africa: evidence and implications," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 41-62, February.
    7. Eugene Msizi Buthelezi, 2023. "Impact of Inflation in Different States of Unemployment: Evidence with the Phillips Curve in South Africa from 2008 to 2022," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, January.
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-562 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Beatrice Desiree Simo-Kengne, 2018. "Inflation and Output Growth Dynamics in South Africa: Evidence from the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 143-154, January.
    10. Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. kanda & Mampho P. Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Modeled and Non-Modeled Inflation Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 201374, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Ndou, Eliphas & Gumata, Nombulelo, 2024. "Should the South African Reserve Bank lower the inflation target band? Insights from the GDP-inflation nexus," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 638-654.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James B. Bullard & John W. Keating, 1994. "Superneutrality in postwar economies," Working Papers 1994-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Monika Blaszkiewicz-Schwartzman, 2007. "Explaining Exchange Rate Movements in New Member States of the European Union: Nominal and Real Convergence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 144, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    3. Lastrapes, William D. & Potts, Todd B., 2006. "Durable goods and the forward-looking theory of consumption: Estimates implied by the dynamic effects of money," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1409-1430, August.
    4. Wong, Soon-Ming & Loi, Siew-Ling, 2016. "Money Influence on Real Economy Activity: Evidences Review on Japanese Context," MPRA Paper 73559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Tang, Maggie May-Jean & Puah, Chin-Hong & Awang Marikan, Dayang-Affizzah, 2013. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Neutrality Hypothesis Using Divisia Money," MPRA Paper 50020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2004. "Long Run Neutrality and Superneutrality of Money: Aggregate and Sectoral Tests for Nicaragua," Macroeconomics 0402004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1998. "The liquidity effect and long-run neutrality," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 149-194, December.
    8. John Keating, 2004. "Interpreting Permanent and Transitory Shocks to Output When Aggregate Demand May Not Be Neutral in the Long-run," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 608, Econometric Society.
    9. Halabi, Claudia E. & Lastrapes, William D., 2003. "Estimating the liquidity effect in post-reform Chile: do inflationary expectations matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 813-833, November.
    10. Max Gillman & Anton Nakov, 2004. "Granger causality of the inflation–growth mirror in accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 653-681, December.
    11. John Geweke & Joel Horowitz & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," CESifo Working Paper Series 1870, CESifo.
    12. Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1995. "Tests of long-run neutrality using permanent monetary and real shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44, February.
    13. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 1998. "The long-run real effects of monetary policy: Keynesian predictions from a neoclassical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    14. Ahrens, Steffen & Snower, Dennis J., 2014. "Envy, guilt, and the Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 69-84.
    15. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
    16. Erdenebat Bataa & Andrew Vivian & Mark Wohar, 2019. "Changes in the relationship between short‐term interest rate, inflation and growth: evidence from the UK, 1820–2014," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 616-640, October.
    17. Bae, Sang-Kun & Ratti, Ronald A., 2000. "Long-run neutrality, high inflation, and bank insolvencies in Argentina and Brazil," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 581-604, December.
    18. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Working Papers 17/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    19. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 667-699, June.
    20. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying supply and demand shocks in the South African Economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 349-389, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    money neutrality; structural vector autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201029. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.