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Inflation and output growth dynamics in South Africa: Evidence from the Markov switching vector auto-regression model

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  • Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo
  • Simo-Kengne, Beatrice Desiree

Abstract

This paper introduces the possibility of asymmetry in the relationship between output growth and inflation in South Africa based on signal extraction model. The Markov-switching vector autoregression is used to this end. The results of the empirical analysis show that, consistent with the attenuation principle, the response of output growth to inflation shocks is asymmetric and depends on inflation volatility regimes and the magnitude of the monetary policy reaction to inflation shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Simo-Kengne, Beatrice Desiree, 2017. "Inflation and output growth dynamics in South Africa: Evidence from the Markov switching vector auto-regression model," MPRA Paper 77286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:77286
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    Cited by:

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    2. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna & Paul N. Acha-Anyi, 2021. "The Openness Hypothesis in the Context of Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Moderating Role of Trade Dynamics on FDI," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 336-359, July.
    3. Simplice Asongu & Christelle Meniago & Raufhon Salahodjaev, 2022. "The role of value added across economic sectors in modulating the effects of FDI on TFP and economic growth dynamics," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(11), pages 5087-5108, February.
    4. Vanessa S. Tchamyou & Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "The Role of ICT in Modulating the Effect of Education and Lifelong Learning on Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 31(3), pages 261-274, September.
    5. Asongu, Simplice A. & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2020. "Foreign direct investment, information technology and economic growth dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    6. Simplice A. Asongu & Samba Diop, 2022. "Resource Rents and Economic Growth: Governance and Infrastructure Thresholds," Working Papers 22/072, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    7. Taderera, Christie & Runganga, Raynold & Mhaka, Simbarashe & Mishi, Syden, 2021. "Inflation, interest rate and economic growth nexuses in SACU countries," MPRA Paper 105419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Simplice A. Asongu & Samba Diop & Ekene ThankGod Emeka & Amarachi O. Ogbonna, 2024. "The role of governance and infrastructure in moderating the effect of resource rents on economic growth," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 24/027, African Governance and Development Institute..
    9. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Kaustav Kanti Sarkar & Srikanta Kundu, 2021. "Nonlinear relationships between inflation, output growth and uncertainty in India: New evidence from a bivariate threshold model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 469-493, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Economic Growth; Non-Linearity; MSVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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