IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/99426.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact of Negative Interest Rate Policy on Emerging Asian markets: An Empirical Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Anand, Abhishek
  • Chakraborty, Lekha S

Abstract

In last few years, several central banks have implemented negative interest rate policies (NIRP) to boost domestic economy. However, such policies may have some unintended consequences for the emerging Asian markets (EAMs). The objective of this paper is to provide an assessment of the domestic and global implications of negative interest rate policy. We also present how the implications differ from that of quantitative easing (QE). The analysis shows that the impact NIRP is heterogeneous; with differential impacts for big Asian economies (India and Indonesia) and small trade dependent economies (STDE) (Hong Kong, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore and Thailand). Nominal GDP and exports are adversely impacted in EMs in response to NIRP, especially in India and Indonesia. The inflation goes significantly high in EMs in response to plausible negative interest rates but the impact is much more severe for India and Indonesia than in STDEs. The local currencies also depreciate in all EAMs in response to negative interest rates. QE, on the other hand, has no significant impact on inflation but nominal GDP growth declines in EAMs. The currency appreciates and exports decline. The impact is much more severe in big emerging economies like India and Indonesia Key words: Negative interest rate policy, Quantitative easing, emerging economies JEL codes: E52, E58.

Suggested Citation

  • Anand, Abhishek & Chakraborty, Lekha S, 2019. "Impact of Negative Interest Rate Policy on Emerging Asian markets: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 99426, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99426
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/99426/1/MPRA_paper_99426.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2021. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Ruchir Agarwal & Miles Kimball, 2015. "Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound," IMF Working Papers 2015/224, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Arteta,Carlos & Kose,Ayhan & Stocker,Marc & Taskin,Temel, 2016. "Negative interest rate policies : sources and implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7791, The World Bank.
    5. Harriet Jackson, 2015. "The International Experience with Negative Policy Rates," Discussion Papers 15-13, Bank of Canada.
    6. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket & Stocker, Marc, 2014. "Tinker, taper, QE, bye ? the effect of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6820, The World Bank.
    7. Morten Linnemann Bech & Aytek Malkhozov, 2016. "How have central banks implemented negative policy rates?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    8. Kimball, Miles S., 2015. "Negative Interest Rate Policy as Conventional Monetary Policy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 234, pages 5-14, November.
    9. Viktoria Hnatkovska & Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2016. "The Exchange Rate Response to Monetary Policy Innovations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 137-181, April.
    10. Hesna Genay & Rich Podjasek, 2014. "What Is the Impact of a Low Interest Rate Environment on Bank Profitability?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jul.
    11. Rangan, Divy & Chakraborty, Lekha, 2020. "COVID-19: Global Diagnosis and Future Policy Perspective," Working Papers 20/304, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    12. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    13. Damle, Devendra & Srivastava, Siddharth & Anand, Tushar & Joshi, Viraj, 2020. "Gender discrimination in devolution of property under Hindu Succession Act, 1956," Working Papers 20/305, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    14. Bose, Sukanya & Ghosh, Priyanta & Sardana, Arvind, 2020. "Exit at the Bottom of the Pyramid: Empirical Explorations in the Context of Elementary Schooling in Delhi," Working Papers 20/306, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shah, Ajay, 2020. "Responding to the new coronavirus: An Indian policy perspective," Working Papers 20/309, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Charumathi Balakrishnan & Habeebu Rahman, 2022. "Does the United States Bond Yield Affect Foreign Institutional Investor Inflows to India and Indian Stock Market?," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 3(4), pages 1-7.
    3. Pandey, Rita & Kedia, Shailly & Malhotra, Anuja, 2020. "Addressing Air Quality Spurts due to Crop Stubble Burning during COVID19 Pandemic: A case of Punjab," Working Papers 20/308, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arteta,Carlos & Kose,Ayhan & Stocker,Marc & Taskin,Temel, 2016. "Negative interest rate policies : sources and implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7791, The World Bank.
    2. Dominika Kolcunova & Tomas Havranek, 2018. "Estimating the Effective Lower Bound on the Czech National Bank’s Policy Rate," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 550-577, December.
    3. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2019. "iCurrency?," Papers 1911.01272, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    4. Ad Van Riet, 2017. "The ECB’s Fight against Low Inflation: On the Effects of Ultra-Low Interest Rates," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-27, April.
    5. Romina Ruprecht, 2020. "Negative interest rates, capital flows and exchange rates," ECON - Working Papers 351, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    6. Gauti B Eggertsson & Ragnar E Juelsrud & Lawrence H Summers & Ella Getz, 2024. "Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(4), pages 2201-2275.
    7. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Ragnar E. Juelsrud & Ella Getz Wold, 2017. "Are Negative Nominal Interest Rates Expansionary?," NBER Working Papers 24039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Takayasu Ito, 2017. "Do monetary policy expectations influence transmission mechanism of Danish interbank market under the negative interest rate policy?," International Journal of Bonds and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(3), pages 223-234.
    9. Christian Pfister & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policies: A stock-taking exercise," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(2), pages 137-169.
    10. Mélina London & Maéva Silvestrini, 2023. "US Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: the Trade Credit Channel," Working papers 915, Banque de France.
    11. Kristina Bluwstein & Fabio Canova, 2016. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbor? The International Effects of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 69-120, September.
    12. Ad Van Riet, 2017. "The ECB’s Fight against Low Inflation: On the Effects of Ultra-Low Interest Rates," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-27, April.
    13. Christian Pfister, Natacha Valla, 2018. "‘New Normal’ or ‘New Orthodoxy’? Elements of a Central Banking Framework for the After-Crisis," Working papers 680, Banque de France.
    14. repec:bla:pacecr:v:23:y:2018:i:1:p:8-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Thomas Scheiber & Maria Antoinette Silgoner & Caroline Stern, 2016. "The development of bank profitability in Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland during a period of ultra-low and negative interest rates," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-28.
    16. Katrin Assenmacher & Signe Krogstrup, 2018. "Monetary Policy with Negative Interest Rates: Decoupling Cash from Electronic Money," IMF Working Papers 2018/191, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Moumita Paul & Kalluru Siva Reddy, 2022. "US QE and the Indian Bond Market," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(1), pages 137-157, March.
    18. Ruchir Agarwal & Miles Kimball, 2019. "Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions: A Guide," IMF Working Papers 2019/084, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Jongrim Ha & Dohan Kim & M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad, 2024. "Resolving Puzzles of Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 33133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Lopez, Jose A. & Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2020. "Why have negative nominal interest rates had such a small effect on bank performance? Cross country evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    21. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Negative interest rate policy; Quantitative easing; emerging economies JEL codes: E52; E58.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.