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Estimating the Effective Lower Bound on the Czech National Bank's Policy Rate

Author

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  • Dominika Kolcunova
  • Tomas Havranek

Abstract

This paper focuses on the estimation of the effective lower bound on the Czech National Bank's policy rate. The effective lower bound is determined by the value below which holding and using cash would be preferable to holding deposits with negative yields. This bound is approximated on the basis of the storage, insurance and transport costs of cash and the loss of convenience associated with cashless payments. This estimate is complemented by a calculation based on interest charges reflecting the impact of negative rates on banks' profitability. Overall, we get a mean of slightly below -1%, approximately in the interval (-2.0%, -0.4%). In addition, by means of a vector autoregression we show that the potential of negative rates is not sufficient to deliver monetary policy easing similar in its effects to the impact of the Czech National Bank's exchange rate commitment during the years 2013-2017.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominika Kolcunova & Tomas Havranek, 2018. "Estimating the Effective Lower Bound on the Czech National Bank's Policy Rate," Working Papers 2018/9, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2018/9
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    Cited by:

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    3. Marek Zinecker & Martina Skalicka & Adam P. Balcerzak & Michał Bernard Pietrzak, 2022. "Identifying the impact of external environment on business angel activity," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 83-105, December.
    4. Simona Malovaná & Josef Bajzík & Dominika Ehrenbergerová & Jan Janků, 2023. "A prolonged period of low interest rates in Europe: Unintended consequences," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 526-572, April.
    5. Simona Malovana & Josef Bajzik & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Jan Janku, 2020. "A Prolonged Period of Low Interest Rates: Unintended Consequences," Research and Policy Notes 2020/02, Czech National Bank.
    6. Veronika Kajurová & Dagmar Vágnerová Linnertová, 2022. "The Nexus between Monetary Policy and Commercial Lending Rates: Comprehensive Evidence from Czechia during Different Policy Stances," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(4), pages 330-351, July.
    7. Milan Šimáček, 2021. "Transmise měnové politiky a spodní efektivní hranice měnověpolitické úrokové sazby [Monetary Policy Transmission and Effective Lower Limit of Monetary Policy Interest Rates]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(2), pages 227-253.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Costs of cash; effective lower bound; negative interest rates; transmission of monetary policy; zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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