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The development of bank profitability in Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland during a period of ultra-low and negative interest rates

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In June 2014, the ECB decided to lower its interest rate on the deposit facility for the first time to below zero with the aim of countering deflation risks. Negative central bank interest rates have no precedent in history and thus raise questions about potential unintended side effects on the economy and the banking system. To evaluate the risks of such side effects, we investigate the development of bank profitability in three European countries that look back on more than one year of negative interest rates: Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland. Overall we conclude that in these countries, negative interest rates have so far not resulted in a significant reduction of bank profitability and particularly of net interest income. Declines in interest income have been more than compensated for by declines in interest expenses. Most fears about unintended consequences of negative interest rates, such as a rush to cash or a reduction of credit supply, have so far not materialized.

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  • Thomas Scheiber & Maria Antoinette Silgoner & Caroline Stern, 2016. "The development of bank profitability in Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland during a period of ultra-low and negative interest rates," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2016:i:3:b:1
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    1. Lerbs, Oliver & Pirschel, Jenny, 2017. "Auswirkungen von Niedrigzinsen auf das Verhalten von Banken in Dänemark," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 168444, March.
    2. Durrani, Agha & Metzler, Julian & Michail, Nektarios & Werner, Johannes Gabriel, 2022. "Bank lending rates and the remuneration for risk: evidence from portfolio and loan level data," Working Paper Series 2753, European Central Bank.
    3. Stefan Kerbl & Michael Sigmund, 2016. "From low to negative rates: an asymmetric dilemma," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 32, pages 120-137.
    4. Boungou, Whelsy & Hubert, Paul, 2021. "The channels of banks’ response to negative interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Oliver de Groot & Alexander Haas, 2020. "The Negative Interest Rate Policy Experiment," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(01), pages 7-12, April.
    6. Katharina Allinger & Julia Wörz, 2020. "The sensitivity of banks’ net interest margins to interest rate conditions in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/20, pages 51-70.
    7. Boungou, Whelsy, 2021. "Empirical evidence of the lending channel of monetary policy under negative interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 309-318.
    8. Whelsy Boungou & Charles Mawusi, 2023. "Bank lending margins in a negative interest rate environment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 886-901, January.
    9. Urbschat, Florian, 2018. "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Impact of Negative Interest Rates and QE on the Profitability and Risk-Taking of 1600 German Banks," Discussion Papers in Economics 56535, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    10. Óscar Arce & Miguel García-Posada & Sergio Mayordomo & Steven Ongena, 2018. "Adapting lending policies in a “negative-for-long” scenario (Updated October 2020)," Working Papers 1832, Banco de España, revised Oct 2020.
    11. Avignone, Giuseppe & Girardone, Claudia & Pancaro, Cosimo & Pancotto, Livia & Reghezza, Alessio, 2022. "Making a virtue out of necessity: the effect of negative interest rates on bank cost efficiency," Working Paper Series 2718, European Central Bank.
    12. Whelsy Boungou, 2019. "Negative Interest Rates, Bank Profitability and Risk-taking," Working Papers hal-03456106, HAL.
    13. Thomas Scheiber & Julia Wörz, 2018. "How are reduced interest rate differentials affecting euroization in Southeastern Europe? Evidence from the OeNB Euro Survey," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1-18, pages 48-60.
    14. Madaschi, Christophe & Pablos Nuevo, Irene, 2017. "The profitability of banks in a context of negative monetary policy rates: the cases of Sweden and Denmark," Occasional Paper Series 195, European Central Bank.
    15. López-Penabad, Maria Celia & Iglesias-Casal, Ana & Silva Neto, José Fernando, 2022. "Effects of a negative interest rate policy in bank profitability and risk taking: Evidence from European banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    low interest rate environment; monetary transmission; bank profitability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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