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Estimating the Effective Lower Bound for the Czech National Bank’s Policy Rate

Author

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  • Dominika Kolcunova

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic
    Czech National Bank, Na prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1, Czech Republic)

  • Tomas Havranek

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic
    Czech National Bank, Na prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1, Czech Republic)

Abstract

The paper focuses on the estimation of the effective lower bound for the Czech National Bank’s policy rate. The effective lower bound is determined by the value below which holding and using cash would be preferable to deposits with negative yields. This bound is approximated based on storage, insurance and transportation costs of cash and the loss of convenience associated with cashless payments and complemented with the estimate based on interest charges which present direct costs to the bank profitability. Overall we get a mean value slightly below -1%, approxi- mately in the interval (-2.0%, -0.4%). In addition, by means of a vector autoregression we show that the potential of negative rates would not be sufficient to deliver monetary policy easing similar in its effects to the impact of the Czech National Bank’s exchange rate commitment during the years 2013–2017.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominika Kolcunova & Tomas Havranek, 2018. "Estimating the Effective Lower Bound for the Czech National Bank’s Policy Rate," Working Papers IES 2018/22, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2018_22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Simona Malovana & Josef Bajzik & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Jan Janku, 2020. "A Prolonged Period of Low Interest Rates: Unintended Consequences," Research and Policy Notes 2020/02, Czech National Bank.
    4. Christian Grisse, 2023. "Lower Bound Uncertainty and Long‐Term Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 619-634, March.
    5. Simona Malovaná & Josef Bajzík & Dominika Ehrenbergerová & Jan Janků, 2023. "A prolonged period of low interest rates in Europe: Unintended consequences," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 526-572, April.
    6. Veronika Kajurová & Dagmar Vágnerová Linnertová, 2022. "The Nexus between Monetary Policy and Commercial Lending Rates: Comprehensive Evidence from Czechia during Different Policy Stances," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(4), pages 330-351, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    effective lower bound; zero lower bound; negative interest rates; costs of cash; transmission of monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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