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Forecasting travel time variability

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  • Eliasson, Jonas

Abstract

In order to incorporate travel time variability in appraisal, methods are needed to predict effects on travel time variability of investments and polity measures. The present study is a first step towards developing such a method. Using data from Stockholm’s automatic camera system for travel time measurements, a relationship is estimated between the standard deviation, the congestion level and various link characteristics. The relationship has been used in a cost-benefit analysis of the planned Stockholm bypass, yielding added benefits of around 15% of the conventional travel time benefits. Moreover, it is shown that that the travel time distribution tends to be less skewed for higher congestion levels, and that the covariance between adjacent links seems to be relatively small. The latter results is important since it makes it possible to approximate route variances as the sum of link variances.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliasson, Jonas, 2009. "Forecasting travel time variability," MPRA Paper 92470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92470
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/92470/2/MPRA_paper_92470.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-260, May.
    2. Bates, John & Polak, John & Jones, Peter & Cook, Andrew, 0. "The valuation of reliability for personal travel," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 191-229, April.
    3. Fosgerau, Mogens, 2010. "On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 598-603, April.
    4. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-479, June.
    5. Robert B. Noland & John W. Polak, 2002. "Travel time variability: A review of theoretical and empirical issues," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 39-54, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Qian & Sundberg, Marcus & Karlström, Anders, 2013. "Scheduling choices under rank dependent utility maximization," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:16, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    2. Alejandro Tirachini & David Hensher & Michiel Bliemer, 2014. "Accounting for travel time variability in the optimal pricing of cars and buses," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 947-971, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Travel time variability; reliability; congestion; travel time uncertainty; delays; appraisal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

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