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Evolving foresight in a small transition economy: The design, use and relevance of foresight methods in Hungary

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  • Havas, Attila

Abstract

Hungary launched her first foresight programme, TEP in 1997. TEP is a holistic foresight programme, based on both panel activities and a large scale Delphi survey. It has put more emphasis on socio-economic needs than on S&T issues. The paper discusses why to conduct foresight, then describes what has been done (organisation, methods and results), and how methods have evolved in Hungary. Policy and methodological lessons as well as questions for further research are also offered. Heritage of the former system, the transition process itself and the current level of socio-economic development all played a decisive role throughout the programme. For socio-psychological considerations TEP was set up deliberately as a programme controlled by non-governmental experts, and in turn, the Steering Group delegated a great deal of autonomy to the panels. Thus methods were refined continuously. Given the fundamental socio-economic changes in Hungary and the enlargement of the European Union a strong emphasis was put on scenarios – both at macro and panel levels –, and a large number of Delphi-statements featured non-technological issues. To develop qualitatively different visions, as well as to align macro and panel futures, however, proved to be a rather difficult task.

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  • Havas, Attila, 2001. "Evolving foresight in a small transition economy: The design, use and relevance of foresight methods in Hungary," MPRA Paper 66347, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2001.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:66347
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Freeman, Chris, 1995. "The 'National System of Innovation' in Historical Perspective," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 19(1), pages 5-24, February.
    2. Attila Havas, Attila, 2000. "Foresight in a small country in transition: Preliminary lessons of the Hungarian Technology Programme," MPRA Paper 79515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Havas, Attila, 1998. "A Long Way to Go: The Hungarian science and technology policy in transition," MPRA Paper 63533, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Freeman, Chris, 1994. "The Economics of Technical Change," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 18(5), pages 463-514, October.
    5. Chris Freeman & Luc Soete, 1997. "The Economics of Industrial Innovation, 3rd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262061953, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. K. Matthias Weber & Jennifer Cassingena Harper & Totti Könnölä & Vicente Carabias Barceló, 2012. "Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 153-165, February.
    2. Attila Havas & K. Matthias Weber, 2016. "The ‘fit’ between forward-looking activities and the innovation policy governance sub-system," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1601, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    3. Totti Könnölä & Karel Haegeman, 2012. "Embedding foresight in transnational research programming," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 191-207, March.
    4. Havas, Atttila & Weber, K. Matthias, 2017. "The role of foresight in shaping the next production revolution," MPRA Paper 100374, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology foresight; Innovation system; Visions (futures); Economic transition; Hungary;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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