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Foresight in a small country in transition: Preliminary lessons of the Hungarian Technology Programme

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  • Attila Havas, Attila

Abstract

Hungary launched her first foresight programme in 1997. As the country is undergoing fundamental economic and social changes, major institutions are being currently shaped. Therefore is high time to think about medium and long-term issues. In other words, now it is possible to devise strategies aimed at improving the quality of life and the long-term international competitiveness. Foresight has seemed an adequate tool to bring together business, the science base and government in order to identify and respond to emerging opportunities in markets and technologies. TEP is a holistic foresight programme, based on both panel activities (scenarios, SWOT analysis, recommendations, policy proposals, etc.) and a large scale Delphi survey. The two-year Programme will conclude in 1999. The paper is aimed at analysing the reasons to launch TEP, its results achieved so far and some methodological issues, namely • a strong emphasis on scenarios (‘macro’ and panel level), • the structure and composition of panels (education and learning as input of competitiveness, employment as a unique issue, broad issues as panel topics), • the importance of cross-cutting issues, • the organisation and management of the programme, • the socio-psychological legacy of planning in the foresight process.

Suggested Citation

  • Attila Havas, Attila, 2000. "Foresight in a small country in transition: Preliminary lessons of the Hungarian Technology Programme," MPRA Paper 79515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79515
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    Cited by:

    1. Attila Havas, 2002. "Does Innovation Policy Matter in a Transition Country? – The case of Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0205, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    2. Attila Havas, 2002. "Identifying Challenges and Developing Visions - Technology Foresight in Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0206, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    3. Attila Havas, 2003. "Evolving foresight in a small transition economy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 179-201.
    4. Havas, Attila, 2001. "Evolving foresight in a small transition economy: The design, use and relevance of foresight methods in Hungary," MPRA Paper 66347, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2001.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foresight; National innovation system; Transition to market economy; Delphi survey; Scenario analyses; Multi-level analyses; Hungary;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B52 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Modern Monetary Theory;
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • P30 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - General

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