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The role of foresight in shaping the next production revolution

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  • Havas, Atttila
  • Weber, K. Matthias

Abstract

Foresight can be a highly useful tool to address the opportunities and challenges triggered by the next production revolution. As shown by the various country cases considered in this chapter, it facilitates debating and systemic thinking about multiple futures and helps shaping the future through the process of participation and engagement. Given its participatory nature, key actors are mobilised to form shared views about the future, negotiate their future stakes and interests, and agree on actions aligned to their shared vision. The next production revolution requires quick and proactive policy-making, as well as better orchestration across different policy domains. Foresight can assist policy-makers by providing foundations for robust policies, fostering new framing of policy issues, as well as translating long-term concerns into aligned policy priorities. Furthermore, policy implementation is likely to be faster and more effective when key stakeholders are involved early on in shaping these policies. Foresight benefits, however, are far from being automatic: the chapter considers eight factors critical to achieving those. An astute embedding of a foresight process into policy-making enhances the likelihood of impact, but foresight recommendations are no substitute for policy decisions and actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Havas, Atttila & Weber, K. Matthias, 2017. "The role of foresight in shaping the next production revolution," MPRA Paper 100374, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:100374
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Havas, Attila, 2008. "Universities and the emerging new players: Building futures for higher education," MPRA Paper 66333, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Amanatidou, Effie, 2014. "Beyond the veil — The real value of Foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 274-291.
    3. Attila Havas & Doris Schartinger & Matthias Weber, 2010. "The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 91-104, June.
    4. Dirk Meissner & Leonid Gokhberg & Alexander Sokolov (ed.), 2013. "Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-31827-6, January.
    5. Jakob Edler & Paul Cunningham & Abdullah Gök & Philip Shapira (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Innovation Policy Impact," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16121.
    6. Havas, Attila, 2001. "Evolving foresight in a small transition economy: The design, use and relevance of foresight methods in Hungary," MPRA Paper 66347, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2001.
    7. Attila Havas, 2003. "Evolving foresight in a small transition economy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 179-201.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Schoen, Antoine & Larédo, Philippe & Gallart, Jordi Molas & Warnke, Philine & Kuhlmann, Stefan & Ordóñez-Matamoros, Gonzalo, 2021. "Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Douglas K. R. Robinson & Antoine Schoen & Philippe Larédo & Jordi Molas Gallart & Philine Warnke & Stefan Kuhlmann & Gonzalo Ordóñez-Matamoros, 2021. "Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts," Post-Print hal-03232913, HAL.
    3. Merit Tatar & Tarmo Kalvet & Marek Tiits, 2020. "Cities4ZERO Approach to Foresight for Fostering Smart Energy Transition on Municipal Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-30, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foresight; Next production revolution; Four archetypes of prospective analysis; Roles and benefits of foresight in devising policies; Critical factors and conditions to reap the benefits of foresight;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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