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Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis

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  • K. Matthias Weber
  • Jennifer Cassingena Harper
  • Totti Könnölä
  • Vicente Carabias Barceló

Abstract

Transformations linked to disruptive events are causing a shift in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) activities from individual large-scale foresight actions to smaller in-house exercises and capacity building. The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations. This paper identifies three ideal types: external FTA services, the institutionalisation of FTA, and FTA networks, whilst recognising that in practice these types are complementary. In empirical terms this requires further investigation, in order to understand how different combinations of activities actually operate in their respective decision-making contexts. It is important to improve our understanding of how far institutionalised FTA can form part of customised solutions for building capacity to handle disruptions. Copyright The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Matthias Weber & Jennifer Cassingena Harper & Totti Könnölä & Vicente Carabias Barceló, 2012. "Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 153-165, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:scippl:v:39:y:2012:i:2:p:153-165
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rowe, Emily & Wright, George & Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Enhancing horizon scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: Analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important ‘weak signals’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 224-235.
    2. Vesnic-Alujevic, Lucia & Nascimento, Susana & Pólvora, Alexandre, 2020. "Societal and ethical impacts of artificial intelligence: Critical notes on European policy frameworks," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(6).
    3. Havas, Attila & Weber, K. Matthias, 2017. "The 'fit' between forward-looking activities and the innovation policy governance sub-system: A framework to explore potential impacts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 327-337.
    4. Pombo-Juárez, Laura & Könnölä, Totti & Miles, Ian & Saritas, Ozcan & Schartinger, Doris & Amanatidou, Effie & Giesecke, Susanne, 2017. "Wiring up multiple layers of innovation ecosystems: Contemplations from Personal Health Systems Foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 278-288.
    5. Bernd Carsten Stahl & Job Timmermans & Catherine Flick, 2017. "Ethics of Emerging Information and Communication Technologies," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 369-381.
    6. Aguirre-Bastos, Carlos & Weber, Matthias K., 2018. "Foresight for shaping national innovation systems in developing economies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 186-196.

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