IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/66056.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population ageing and prices in an OLG model with money created by credits

Author

Listed:
  • Fedotenkov, Igor

Abstract

This paper provides an explanation of why population ageing is associated with deflationary processes. For this reason, we create an overlapping-generations model (OLG) with money created by credits (inside money) and intergenerational trade. In other words, we combine a neoclassical OLG model, with post-Keynesian monetary theory. The model links demographic factors, such as fertility rates and longevity, to prices. We show that lower fertility rates lead to a smaller demand for credits, and lower money creation, which causes a decline in prices. Changes in longevity affect prices via real savings and capital market. Furthermore, we address a few links between interest rates and inflation, which arise in the general equilibrium, and are not thoroughly discussed in the literature. Long-run results are derived analytically; short-run dynamics is simulated numerically.

Suggested Citation

  • Fedotenkov, Igor, 2015. "Population ageing and prices in an OLG model with money created by credits," MPRA Paper 66056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:66056
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/66056/1/MPRA_paper_66056.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Motohiro Yogo, 2004. "Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution When Instruments Are Weak," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 797-810, August.
    2. Yoon, Jong-Won & Kim, Jinill & Lee, Jungjin, 2018. "Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 40(1), pages 1-30.
    3. Richard Blundell & Martin Browning & Costas Meghir, 1994. "Consumer Demand and the Life-Cycle Allocation of Household Expenditures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(1), pages 57-80.
    4. Cheng, Hao & Kesselring, Randall G. & Brown, Christopher R., 2013. "The Gibson paradox: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 82-93.
    5. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    6. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & Paz, Lourenço S., 2013. "Estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution: Is the aggregate financial return free from the weak instrument problem?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 63-75.
    7. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    8. Piti Disyatat, 2011. "The Bank Lending Channel Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 711-734, June.
    9. Katagiri, Mitsuru & Konishi, Hideki & Ueda, Kozo, 2020. "Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 1-15.
    10. Champ,Bruce & Freeman,Scott & Haslag,Joseph, 2016. "Modeling Monetary Economies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316508671.
    11. Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Inflation and the Redistribution of Nominal Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(6), pages 1069-1097, December.
    12. Patrick A. Imam, 2015. "Shock from Graying: Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 138-154, March.
    13. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    14. Amable, Bruno & Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & De Bandt, Olivier, 2002. "Optimal capacity in the banking sector and economic growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 491-517, March.
    15. Skinner, Jonathan, 1985. "Variable Lifespan and the Intertemporal Elasticity of Consumption," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 616-623, November.
    16. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 1998. "Age structure and inflation - a Wicksellian interpretation of the OECD data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 19-37, July.
    17. David Andolfatto & Ed Nosal, 2001. "A simple model of money and banking," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q III, pages 20-28.
    18. Werner, Richard A., 2014. "How do banks create money, and why can other firms not do the same? An explanation for the coexistence of lending and deposit-taking," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 71-77.
    19. Cottrell, Allin F, 1986. "The Endogeneity of Money and Money-Income Causality," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 33(1), pages 2-27, February.
    20. Ryoji Hiraguchi, 2014. "Optimal Monetary Policy in OLG Models with Long-Lived Agents: A Note," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 16(1), pages 164-172, February.
    21. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & Ribeiro, Priscila Fernandes, 2015. "Estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution taking into account the precautionary savings motive," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 108-123.
    22. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2000. "Can age structure forecast inflation trends?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 31-49.
    23. Chen, Chung & Lee, Chi-Wen Jevons, 1990. "A VARMA Test on the Gibson Paradox," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 96-107, February.
    24. Jürgen Faik, 2012. "Impacts of an Ageing Society on Macroeconomics and Income Inequality: The Case of Germany since the 1980s," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 518, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    25. McLeay, Michael & Radia, Amar & Thomas, Ryland, 2014. "Money creation in the modern economy," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 14-27.
    26. Weber, Warren E, 1975. "Interest Rates, Inflation, and Consumer Expenditures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 843-858, December.
    27. Qi, Jianping, 1994. "Bank Liquidity and Stability in an Overlapping Generations Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(2), pages 389-417.
    28. Werner, Richard A., 2014. "Can banks individually create money out of nothing? — The theories and the empirical evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-19.
    29. Basil J. Moore, 1979. "The Endogenous Money Stock," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 49-70, October.
    30. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2015. "Editor's Choice Very Long-Run Discount Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(1), pages 1-53.
    31. Andolfatto, David & Gervais, Martin, 2008. "Endogenous debt constraints in a life-cycle model with an application to social security," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 3745-3759, December.
    32. Cottrell, Allin, 1994. "Post-Keynesian Monetary Economics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 18(6), pages 587-605, December.
    33. Jakab, Zoltan & Kumhof, Michael, 2015. "Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds – and why this matters," Bank of England working papers 529, Bank of England.
    34. Karen E. Dynan, 1993. "How prudent are consumers?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 135, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    35. P. Gajewski, 2015. "Is ageing deflationary? Some evidence from OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 916-919, July.
    36. Bertrand Crettez & Philippe Michel & Bertrand Wigniolle, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy, Taxes, and Public Debt in an Intertemporal Equilibrium," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 4(3), pages 299-316, July.
    37. Mikael Juselius & Elod Takats, 2015. "Can demography affect inflation and monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 485, Bank for International Settlements.
    38. Marinko Škare & Lorena Mošnja-Škare, 2015. "Gibson paradox revisited - liquidity chain effect," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 510-528, June.
    39. Weber, Warren E, 1970. "The Effect of Interest Rates on Aggregate Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 591-600, September.
    40. Dynan, Karen E, 1993. "How Prudent Are Consumers?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1104-1113, December.
    41. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fedotenkov, Igor, 2018. "Population ageing and inflation with endogenous money creation," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 392-403.
    2. Paula C. A. M. de Albuquerque & Jorge Caiado & Andreia Pereira, 2020. "Population aging and inflation: evidence from panel cointegration," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 469-484, January.
    3. Engelhardt, Gary V. & Kumar, Anil, 2009. "The elasticity of intertemporal substitution: New evidence from 401(k) participation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 15-17, April.
    4. Julian Thimme, 2017. "Intertemporal Substitution In Consumption: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 226-257, February.
    5. Antonio Cutanda & José M. Labeaga & Juan A. Sanchis-Llopis, 2020. "Aggregation biases in empirical Euler consumption equations: evidence from Spanish data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 957-977, March.
    6. H. Youn Kim & José Alberto Molina & Ka Kei Gary Wong, 2022. "Durable Goods and Consumer Behavior with Liquidity Constraints: Evidence from Norway," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1047, Boston College Department of Economics.
    7. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & Ribeiro, Priscila Fernandes, 2015. "Estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution taking into account the precautionary savings motive," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 108-123.
    8. Xing, Xiaoyun & Wang, Mingsong & Wang, Yougui & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2020. "Credit creation under multiple banking regulations: The impact of balance sheet diversity on money supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 720-735.
    9. Daria Pignalosa, 2019. "On the role of the utility function in the estimation of preference parameters," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 793-820, November.
    10. Barbiellini Amidei, Federico & Gomellini, Matteo & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "The price of demography," MPRA Paper 94435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Li, Boyao, 2024. "A balance sheet analysis of monetary policy effects on banks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    12. Rai, Karan & Garg, Bhavesh, 2024. "Demographic transition and inflation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(4).
    13. Li, Boyao & Xiong, Wanting & Chen, Liujun & Wang, Yougui, 2017. "The impact of the liquidity coverage ratio on money creation: A stock-flow based dynamic approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 193-202.
    14. Gary V. Engelhardt & Anil Kumar, 2007. "Employer Matching and 401(k) Saving: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," NBER Chapters, in: Public Policy and Retirement, Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), pages 1920-1943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. van Eeghen, Piet-Hein, 2021. "Funding money-creating banks: Cash funding, balance sheet funding and the moral hazard of currency elasticity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    16. Mateo Zokalj, 2016. "The impact of population aging on public finance in the European Union," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 40(4), pages 383-412.
    17. Justin W. van de Ven, 2017. "Parameterising a detailed dynamic programming model of savings and labour supply using cross-sectional data," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 10(1), pages 135-166.
    18. Tomáš Havránek, 2015. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Importance Of Method Choices And Selective Reporting," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1180-1204, December.
    19. Anjan V. Thakor & Edison Yu, 2023. "Funding Liquidity Creation by Banks," Working Papers 23-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    20. Jonathan A. Parker & Bruce Preston, 2005. "Precautionary Saving and Consumption Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1119-1143, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population ageing; inflation; OLG model; inside money; credits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:66056. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.