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Gibson paradox revisited - liquidity chain effect

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  • Marinko Škare
  • Lorena Mošnja-Škare

Abstract

Gibson paradox remains a puzzle in the discipline of economics. Previous studies attempted to resolve the paradox looking separately at the gold standard, changing monetary regimes, inflation expectations, risk and uncertainty. Our study shows Gibson paradox holds for the Netherlands 1800-2012 with real long interest rates and prices diverging after 2008. This paper offers empirical evidence (nonlinear cointegration) on the integrity of the Gibson paradox. Single factor cannot explain the paradox itself (because of its nonlinear nature) as previous studies attempted. Empirical link between long interest rates and prices is caused by complex interaction between purchasing power, liquidity, gold prices, market turnover, stocks accumulation, productivity, short-term interest rates. This approach analysis the purchasing power and price relation, resulting in firms' turnover and liquidity shifts, leading to short-term borrowings changes and pressures on interest rates in the short as well as in long-term. Actually, the model enables us to track the series of price change effects finally resulting in interest rates shifts, via a set of microeconomic and financial laws, which taken at the aggregate level could offer the Gibson paradox explanation. Further studies must explore nonlinear nature of the paradox in order to explain it. Study results have important implications for policy makers and firm governance policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Marinko Škare & Lorena Mošnja-Škare, 2015. "Gibson paradox revisited - liquidity chain effect," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 510-528, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jbemgt:v:16:y:2015:i:3:p:510-528
    DOI: 10.3846/16111699.2014.984753
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    3. repec:dgr:rugccs:200110 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Smits, Jan-Pieter & Horlings, Edwin & Zanden, Jan Luiten van, "undated". "Dutch GNP and its components, 1800-1913," GGDC Research Memorandum No.5, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    5. repec:dgr:rugsom:01c52 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:dgr:rugggd:no.5 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jacobs, Jan & Smits, Jan-Pieter, 2001. "Business cycles in the Netherlands, 1815-1913," Research Report 01C52, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
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    Cited by:

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    2. Fedotenkov, Igor, 2015. "Population ageing and prices in an OLG model with money created by credits," MPRA Paper 66056, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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