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Impacts of an Ageing Society on Macroeconomics and Income Inequality: The Case of Germany since the 1980s

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  • Jürgen Faik

Abstract

The discussion paper is concerned with the interplay between demography and macroeconomics on one hand and macroeconomics and income inequality on the other hand. For this purpose, several estimation equations are derived by econometric methods (on the empirical basis of the 1984-2010 German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) waves). In concrete terms, the macroeconomic variables inflation, economic growth, and unemployment are at first connected with the German demographic ageing; afterwards, these connections are used to produce a nexus between German incomeinequality and the stated macroeconomic variables (additionally to the exogenous effects of ageing). For the empirical periods examined (1983-2009), there have been a) a (slightly) negative influence of demographic ageing on the inflation rate, b) a (weak) positive effect of ageing on the level - not on the increases (reductions) - of economic growth rates, and c) a somewhat stronger positive impact of demographic ageing on unemployment rates. While the measured income inequality is upwards directly (exogenously) driven by demographic ageing, the mechanisms through the different macroeconomic channels are more difficile: Inflation is positively and unemployment negatively correlated with income inequality, and regarding economic growth a (slightly) concave effect upon income inequality has been observed. All these findings imply that demographic ageing, ceteris paribus and by tendency, diminishes income inequality via inflation and unemployment rate, which is also valid for economic growth (within the empirically relevant value range for the German demographic ageing). But on balance, there is an overcompensating direct, exogenous impact of demographic ageing on inequality in the model used in this paper, and this causes tendencies towards a remarkable increase of German income inequality until 2060. These tendencies are more pronounced in the forecast variant in which a strongly ageing population is assumed.

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  • Jürgen Faik, 2012. "Impacts of an Ageing Society on Macroeconomics and Income Inequality: The Case of Germany since the 1980s," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 518, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp518
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    1. Shaik, Muhammad Raees & Goh, Soo Khoon & Wong, Koi Nyen & Law, Chee Hong, 2024. "Does population aging coexist with income inequality in the long run? Evidence from selected Asia-Pacific countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    2. Fedotenkov, Igor, 2018. "Population ageing and inflation with endogenous money creation," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 392-403.
    3. Naudé, Wim & Nagler, Paula, 2017. "Technological Innovation and Inclusive Growth in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 11194, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Dr. Thomas Drosdowski & Britta Stöver & Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter, 2015. "The impact of ageing on income inequality," GWS Discussion Paper Series 15-16, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    5. Fedotenkov, Igor, 2015. "Population ageing and prices in an OLG model with money created by credits," MPRA Paper 66056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. P. Gajewski, 2015. "Is ageing deflationary? Some evidence from OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 916-919, July.
    7. Paula C. A. M. de Albuquerque & Jorge Caiado & Andreia Pereira, 2020. "Population aging and inflation: evidence from panel cointegration," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 469-484, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic Ageing; Macroeconomics; Personal Income Distribution; Inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D30 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - General
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General

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