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Sector-specific analysis of non-performing loans in the US banking system and their macroeconomic impact

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  • Ghosh, Amit

Abstract

Although a growing literature has analyzed the determinants of non-performing loans (henceforth NPLs), very few studies have explored the issue at the disaggregate level. Such an analysis unmasks important differences in the inter-relationships between macroeconomic and balance sheet conditions and different categories of NPLs. The present study examines sector-specific NPLs in the US using data for the 100 largest commercial banks over the period 1992q4-2016q1. While total NPLs remain sensitive to different balance sheet and US macroeconomic conditions, this is most accentuated for real estate loans and its different constituent categories, and commercial & industrial loans. The paper further explores the impact of NPLs on sector-specific product and labor markets. Total NPLs have the most pronounced effect on US housing prices, real GDP growth and housing starts. At the disaggregate level, non-performing construction & land development and C&I loans have the most persistent pernicious impact on corresponding sector-specific employment growth.

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  • Ghosh, Amit, 2017. "Sector-specific analysis of non-performing loans in the US banking system and their macroeconomic impact," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 29-45.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:93:y:2017:i:c:p:29-45
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2017.06.002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-performing loans; Bank balance sheet; Macrofinancial linkages; Feedback effects; GMM estimations; Panel VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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