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Macro Stress Testing of the Slovak Banking Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Juraj Zeman

    (Research Department,National Bank Of Slovakia)

  • Pavol Jurca

    (Regulatory and risk management methodology department,National Bank Of Slovakia)

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the impact of a simulated slowdown in the Slovak economy on the Slovak banking sector. Using a vector error correction model, the impact of the slowdown on interest rates and exchange rates is assessed. This allows us to estimate the aggregated impact of the credit risk, interest rate risk and exchange rate risk. The significance of indirect impact of interest rate risk and foreign exchange risk via possible worsening of financial situation of debtors has also been considered. The results suggest that even significant slowdown of the GDP growth would not substantially threaten the Slovak banking sector provided that the response of the monetary policy would be adequate. Given the current portfolio of the Slovak banking sector, this monetary policy would have positive impact on Slovak banking sector also by direct increase of real value of this portfolio, mainly through the interest rate channel. The shocks in GDP growth that would be left without relevant response in other factors might represent more noticeable threat.

Suggested Citation

  • Juraj Zeman & Pavol Jurca, 2008. "Macro Stress Testing of the Slovak Banking Sector," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2008, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    • Handle: RePEc:svk:wpaper:1001
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    Cited by:

    1. Cağatay Başarır, 2016. "A Macro Stress Test Model of Credit Risk for the Turkish Banking Sector," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(12), pages 762-774, December.
    2. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
    3. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hainz, Christa, 2010. "Default rates in the loan market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 133-147, June.
    4. Pawel Siarka, 2012. "Implementation of the Stress Test Methods in the Retail Portfolio," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(6), pages 1-2.
    5. Lubomira Gertler & Kristina Janovicova-Bognarova & Lukas Majer, 2020. "Explaining Corporate Credit Default Rates with Sector Level Detail," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 70(2), pages 96-120, August.
    6. Piotr Wdowiński, 2014. "Makroekonomiczne czynniki ryzyka kredytowego w sektorze bankowym w Polsce," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 55-77.
    7. Kanas, Angelos & Molyneux, Philip, 2018. "Macro stress testing the U.S. banking system," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 204-227.
    8. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    9. Eftychia Nikolaidou & Sofoklis Vogiazas, 2014. "Credit Risk Determinants for the Bulgarian Banking System," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 87-102, February.
    10. Alenka Kavkler & Mejra Festić, 2010. "The Trade Deficit and Banking Sector Results in Romania and Bulgaria," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 199-213, February.
    11. Pami Dua & Hema Kapur, 2017. "Macro Stress Testing of Indian Bank Groups," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(4), pages 375-403, November.
    12. Dua, Pami & Kapur, Hema, 2018. "Macro stress testing and resilience assessment of Indian banking," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 452-475.
    13. Miora Rakotonirainy & Jean Razafindravonona & Christian Rasolomanana, 2020. "Macro Stress Testing Credit Risk: Case of Madagascar Banking Sector," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(2), pages 199-218.
    14. Pluskota Anna, 2021. "Macroeconomic Determinants Affecting Credit Risk in Central and Eastern Europe," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 21(1), pages 92-104, June.
    15. Maya Panorama, 2017. "Effect of Monetary Aspects on the Performance of Islamic Banks in Indonesia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 76-85.
    16. ?tefan Rychtárik, 2009. "Liquidity Scenario Analysis in the Luxembourg Banking Sector," BCL working papers 41, Central Bank of Luxembourg.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macro stress testing; Credit risk; Slovakia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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