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The Causal Effects of Criminal Convictions on Labor Market Outcomes in Young Men: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis

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  • Richey, Jeremiah

Abstract

This paper examines the causal effects of criminal convictions on labor market outcomes in young men using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort. Unlike previous research in this area which relies on assumptions strong enough to obtain point identification, this paper imposes relatively weak nonparametric assumptions that provide tight bounds on treatment effects. Even in the absence of a parametric model, under certain specifications, a zero effect can be ruled out, though after a bias correction this result is lost. In general the results for the effect on yearly earnings align well with previous findings, though the estimated effect on weeks worked are smaller than in previous findings. Results of a novel sensitivity analysis test how the estimated bounds respond to a weakening/strengthening of two key assumptions. Even under a significant strengthening of a key assumption a negative treatment effect cannot be ruled out.

Suggested Citation

  • Richey, Jeremiah, 2012. "The Causal Effects of Criminal Convictions on Labor Market Outcomes in Young Men: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis," MPRA Paper 56112, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56112
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogeneity; Nonparametric estimation; Criminal convictions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • K40 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - General

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