IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/53153.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Analysis and Forecasting of Drought by Developing a Fuzzy-Based Hybrid Index in Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Moghaddasi, Reza
  • Eghbali, Alireza
  • Lakhaye Rizi, Parisa

Abstract

Drought is the most important and destructive climate phenomenon which is usually of importance in a regional scale. Therefore, this study offers a fuzzy-based hybrid index in order to analyze the regional drought in Abadan and khoramshahr, Khuzestan, Iran. Influencing all aspects of human activity, drought does not have a comprehensive definition and an appropriate and general index to explore it. Consequently, in order to develop a model to evaluate and analyze drought, the fuzzy model has been used. The application of fuzzy logic to examine drought in Abadan-khoramshahr station demonstrated that fuzzy logic enables us to examine drought more accurately and appropriately because it takes into account the type of product (wheat or dates) in calculating the probability of drought. In furtherance of this aim, the fuzzy function related to the standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the standardized evapotranspiration index (SEI) have been combined and a new indicator called the standardized evapotranspiration and Precipitation index (SEPI) was developed. In the final fuzzy model, 81 rules have been utilized. In this study, the annual data of wheat and dates from 1994 to 2012 have been utilized (sometimes 2013 data have been used), and on this basis, the results of the model revealed that severe and continued droughts have occurred in 1999, 2007 and 2009 and the probability of drought for wheat and dates was 64.29 and 57.14 percent respectively in this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Moghaddasi, Reza & Eghbali, Alireza & Lakhaye Rizi, Parisa, 2014. "Analysis and Forecasting of Drought by Developing a Fuzzy-Based Hybrid Index in Iran," MPRA Paper 53153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53153
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53153/1/MPRA_paper_53153.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antoine Leblois & Philippe Quirion & Agali Alhassane & Seydou Traoré, 2014. "Weather Index Drought Insurance: An Ex Ante Evaluation for Millet Growers in Niger," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 57(4), pages 527-551, April.
    2. Enjolras, Geoffroy & Capitanio, Fabian & Adinolfi, Felice, 2012. "The Demand for Crop Insurance: Combined Approaches for France and Italy," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(01), pages 1-18.
    3. de Janvry, A. & Dequiedt, V. & Sadoulet, E., 2014. "The demand for insurance against common shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 227-238.
    4. Ramsay, Colin M. & Oguledo, Victor I. & Pathak, Priya, 2013. "Pricing high-risk and low-risk insurance contracts with incomplete information and production costs," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 606-614.
    5. Gil, Marina & Garrido, Alberto & Gómez-Ramos, Almudena, 2011. "Economic analysis of drought risk: An application for irrigated agriculture in Spain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(5), pages 823-833, March.
    6. Delavari, Majid & Mohammadali, Hanieh & Naderi, Esmaeil & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya, 2011. "The sources of Iran's Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 46756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Agudo-Domínguez, Alberto & Pérez-Blanco, C. Dionisio & Gil-García, Laura & Ortega, José Antonio & Dasgupta, Shouro, 2022. "Climate-sensitive hydrological drought insurance for irrigated agriculture under deep uncertainty. Insightful results from the Cega River Basin in Spain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ugwuja, V C & Otu, P E, 2024. "Assessment of Agricultural Insurance Literacy Levels Among Agripreneurs in Obio-Akpor Local Government Area Rivers State, Nigeria," Nigerian Agricultural Policy Research Journal (NAPReJ), Agricultural Policy Research Network (APRNet), vol. 11(2), December.
    2. F. G. Santeramo & B. K. Goodwin & F. Adinolfi & F. Capitanio, 2016. "Farmer Participation, Entry and Exit Decisions in the Italian Crop Insurance Programme," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 639-657, September.
    3. Ward, Patrick S. & Spielman, David J. & Ortega, David L. & Kumar, Neha & Minocha, Sumedha, 2015. "Demand for Complementary Financial and Technological Tools for Managing Drought Risk: Evidence from Rice Farmers in Bangladesh," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 204882, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Tim Philippi & Jörg Schiller, 2024. "Abandoning disaster relief and stimulating insurance demand through premium subsidies," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 91(2), pages 339-382, June.
    5. Takahashi, Kazushi & Ikegami, Munenobu & Sheahan, Megan & Barrett, Christopher B., 2014. "Quasi-experimental evidence on the drivers of index-based livestock insurance demand in Southern Ethiopia," IDE Discussion Papers 480, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    6. Rogna, Marco & Schamel, Günter & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2019. "Choosing Between Hail Insurance and Anti-Hail Nets: A Simple Model and a Simulation among Apples Producers in South Tyrol," 2019: Trading for Good - Agricultural Trade in the Context of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation... Symposium, June 23-25, 2019, Seville, Spain 312593, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    7. Sadia Hussain & Hamna Ahmed, 2019. "The role of bundling in promoting sustainability of health insurance: evidence from Pakistan," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(3), pages 503-526, July.
    8. Wienand Kölle & Andrea Martínez Salgueiro & Matthias Buchholz & Oliver Musshoff, 2021. "Can satellite‐based weather index insurance improve the hedging of yield risk of perennial non‐irrigated olive trees in Spain?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(1), pages 66-93, January.
    9. Gu, Lili & Liu, Yuchen & Liu, Fang & Dong, Xintong & Dong, Yuling, 2024. "Impacts of policy-related agricultural insurance on farmers’ earnings in China's major grain-producing regions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    10. Lima Miquelluti, Daniel & Ozaki, Vitor & Miquelluti, David J., 2020. "An application of geographically weighted quantile LASSO to weather index insurance design," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304288, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Janssens, Wendy & Kramer, Berber, 2016. "The social dilemma of microinsurance: Free-riding in a framed field experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 131(PB), pages 47-61.
    12. Berg, Erlend & Blake, Michael & Morsink, Karlijn, 2022. "Risk sharing and the demand for insurance: Theory and experimental evidence from Ethiopia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 236-256.
    13. Collins-Sowah, Peron A. & Henning, Christian H. C. A., 2019. "Risk management and its implications on household incomes," Working Papers of Agricultural Policy WP2019-05, University of Kiel, Department of Agricultural Economics, Chair of Agricultural Policy.
    14. Luigi Biagini & Simone Severini, 2022. "Can Machine Learning discover the determining factors in participation in insurance schemes? A comparative analysis," Papers 2212.03092, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    15. Anita Mukherjee & Shawn Cole & Jeremy Tobacman, 2021. "Targeting weather insurance markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(3), pages 757-784, September.
    16. Xiaojuan Yang & Yuan Liu & Wei Bai & Buchun Liu, 2015. "Evaluation of the crop insurance management for soybean risk of natural disasters in Jilin Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 587-599, March.
    17. Trinh, Cong Tam & Nguyen, Xuan & Sgro, Pasquale & Pham, Cong S., 2020. "Culture, financial crisis and the demand for property, accident and health insurance in the OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 480-498.
    18. Capitanio, Fabian & Goodwin, Barry K. & Enjolras, Geoffroy & Adinolfi, Felice, 2013. "Risk management tools for Italian farmers: public support, problems and perspectives under CAP Reform," Politica Agricola Internazionale - International Agricultural Policy, Edizioni L'Informatore Agrario, vol. 2013(01), pages 1-17, March.
    19. Osborne, Matthew & Lambe, Fiona & Ran, Ylva & Dehmel, Naira & Tabacco, Giovanni Alberto & Balungira, Joshua & Pérez-Viana, Borja & Widmark, Erik & Holmlid, Stefan & Verschoor, Arjan, 2022. "Designing development interventions: The application of service design and discrete choice experiments in complex settings," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    20. Richard KOENIG & Marielle BRUNETTE, 2023. "Climate change perception, impact and adaptation: Implications for crop insurance," Working Papers of BETA 2023-36, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Water Requirement; Probability of Drought; wheat; dates; SEPI;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.