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General Equilibrium Assessment of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite FTA

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  • Willenbockel, Dirk

Abstract

This study provides an ex-ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) assessment of the Tripartite Free Trade Agreement between the member states of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community. The CGE approach enables a consistent integrated predictive evaluation of sectoral production and employment impacts, aggregate income and welfare effects of changes in trade barriers while taking full account of the macroeconomic repercussion arising e.g. from terms-of trade effects, tariff revenue changes and intersectoral input-output linkages. The simulation analysis considers eight distinct trade integration scenarios that differ in their level of ambition.

Suggested Citation

  • Willenbockel, Dirk, 2013. "General Equilibrium Assessment of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite FTA," MPRA Paper 51501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51501
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott McDonald & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2007. "Globe: A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data," Departmental Working Papers 14, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    2. Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed, 2012. "The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Economics PhD Theses 0412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    3. Lippoldt, Douglas, 2013. "Policy Priorities for International Trade and Jobs," 2013: Employment, Immigration and Trade, December 15-17, 2013, Clearwater Beach, Florida 182509, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    4. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2004. "Specification choice and robustness in CGE trade policy analysis with imperfect competition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1065-1099, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anja Slany, 2019. "The Role of Trade Policies in Building Regional Value Chains – Some Preliminary Evidence From Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 87(3), pages 326-353, September.
    2. Alemayehu Geda & Addis Yimer, 2023. "The trade effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area: An empirical analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 328-345, February.
    3. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2014. "Computable General Equilibrium Simulations of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Agreement," MPRA Paper 78069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. albagoury, samar & Anber, Mahmoud, 2018. "COMESA-EAC-SADC trepertite free trade area: challenges and prospects," MPRA Paper 92621, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    5. Susara J. Jansen Van Rensburg & Riaan Rossouw & Wilma Viviers, 2020. "Liberalizing Bangladesh’s Services Trade: Is Joining Trade in Services Agreement the Way to Go?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 21(1), pages 99-121, March.
    6. Andrew Mold & Rodgers Mukwaya, 2015. "The Effects of the Tripartite Free Trade Area: Towards a New Economic Geography in Southern, Eastern and Northern Africa?," Discussion Papers 2015-04, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    7. Jana Riedel & Anja Slany, 2019. "The potential of African trade integration – Panel data evidence for the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 843-872, October.
    8. Edward J Balistreri & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte & David G Tarr & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2018. "Poverty, Welfare and Income Distribution Implications of Reducing Trade Costs Through Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 27(2), pages 172-200.
    9. Balistreri, Edward J. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Tarr, David G. & Yonezawa, Hidemichi, 2016. "Poverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa," Conference papers 332681, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Free trade agreement; South-south trade; regional economic integration; computable general equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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