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Panel data evidence on effects of fiscal impulses in the EU New Member States

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  • Borys, Paweł
  • Ciżkowicz, Piotr
  • Rzońca, Andrzej

Abstract

We identify fiscal impulses in the EU New Member States using four different methods and apply econometric panel data techniques to determine what is the response of output and its components to those impulses. We also directly test the effects of fiscal impulses on labor costs and households’ expectations. The results confirm that the composition of impulses matters for output and its components response. Notably we find evidence that investment and export growth accelerates after fiscal adjustment and decelerates after fiscal stimulus when the impulses are expenditure based. In turn, private consumption seems not to respond to fiscal impulses regardless of their size. The analysis confirms that expenditure based fiscal adjustments enhance wage moderation and thereby competitiveness of domestic enterprises, while expenditure-based fiscal stimuli weaken it. By contrast, we do not find evidence that fiscal impulses have an effect on households’ confidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Borys, Paweł & Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2013. "Panel data evidence on effects of fiscal impulses in the EU New Member States," MPRA Paper 48243, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48243
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    2. Peter Friedrich & Janno Reiljan, 2016. "Estonian Economic Policy during Global Financial Crises," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(04), pages 37-44, January.
    3. Zimčík Petr, 2016. "Economic Growth and Budget Constraints: EU Countries Panel Data Analysis," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 16(2), pages 87-101, June.
    4. Peter Friedrich & Janno Reiljan, 2016. "Estonian Economic Policy during Global Financial Crises," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(4), pages 37-44, January.
    5. Adam P. Balcerzak & Elzbieta Rogalska, 2016. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Consolidations in Central Europe in the Years 2000-2013," Chapters, in: Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Hakan Danis (ed.),Entrepreneurship, Business and Economics - Vol. 2. Proceedings of the 15th Eurasia Business and Economics Society, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 271-282, Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2018. "Measuring the effects of oil price and Euro-area shocks on CEECs business cycles," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 74-96.
    7. Tomislav GLOBAN & Marina MATOŠEC, 2016. "Public Debt-to-GDP Ratio in New EU Member States: Cut the Numerator or Increase the Denominator?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 57-72, September.
    8. Pawel Gajewski, 2014. "Sovereign spreads and financial market behavior before and during the crisis," Lodz Economics Working Papers 4/2014, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    9. Vdovychenko, Artem & Zubrytskyi, Artur, 2016. "Effects of fiscal consolidation on exports in Ukraine," MPRA Paper 70722, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2016.
    10. Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2018. "Australia saved from the financial crisis by policy or by exports?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 118-135.

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    Keywords

    expansionary fiscal adjustment; contractionary fiscal stimulus; New Member States; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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