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Automatic fiscal stabilisers in Estonia: the impact of economic fluctatios on general government budget balance

Author

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  • Rasmus Kattai
  • Alvar Kangur
  • Martti Randveer

Abstract

The paper discusses the functioning of automatic fiscal stabilisers in Estonia. The aim of the research is to evaluate government budget sensitivity to economic fluctuations and thereby assess the importance of automatic fiscal stabilisers in Estonia. Specifically we are interested in whether the functioning of automatic fiscal stabilisers might under certain circumstances create difficulties for the fulfilment of the Maastricht deficit criterion according to which public deficit is not allowed to exceed the limit of 3% of GDP. The results of our research show that the role of automatic fiscal stabilisers is modest in Estonia. Budgetary sensitivity was approximately 0.35 in the period 1996-2001 - an increase in output gap by 1 percentage point causes a change in the budget balance by 0.35% of GDP. According to that maximum value, the budget's reaction was only 1.3% of GDP (while the output gap was -3.9%). A positive implication of this is that Estonia has good chances of holding the budget balance within the requested ceilings. If the output gap reaches -5%, structural deficit may still be 1% of GDP without the actual balance exceeding the 3% deficit boundary.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasmus Kattai & Alvar Kangur & Martti Randveer, 2003. "Automatic fiscal stabilisers in Estonia: the impact of economic fluctatios on general government budget balance," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2003-11, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2003-11
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    Cited by:

    1. Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2004. "Hooverism, hyperstabilisation or halfway-house? describing fiscal policy in Estonia 1996-2003," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2004-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2004.
    2. Ralph M. Wrobel, 2008. "Balanced Budget Rules in Europe: A Comparative Institutional Analysis," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 153-168, March.
    3. Paweł Borys & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 189-224, June.
    4. Sigita Grundiza & Dainis Stikuts & Olegs Tkacevs, 2005. "Cyclically Adjusted Balance of Latvia's General Government Consolidated Budget," Working Papers 2005/05, Latvijas Banka.
    5. Maria Neicheva, 2006. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Government Expenditure on Output in Bulgaria: An HP Filter Approach," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    6. Jaan Masso & Kerly Espenberg, 2013. "Early application of fiscal austerity measures in the Baltic states," Chapters, in: Daniel Vaughan-Whitehead (ed.), Public Sector Shock, chapter 3, pages 84-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    automatic fiscal stabilisers; structural budget balance; economic cycle; fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

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