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The cross-section of tail risks in stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Moore, Kyle
  • Sun, Pengfei
  • de Vries, Casper G.
  • Zhou, Chen

Abstract

This paper investigates how the downside tail risk of stock returns is differentiated cross-sectionally. Stock returns follow heavy-tailed distributions with downside tail risk determined by the tail shape and scale. If safety-first investors are concerned with sufficiently large downside losses, i.e. have a sufficiently low risk tolerance, then in the equilibrium, assets traded in the same market share a homogeneous tail shape parameter. Furthermore, if tail shapes are homogeneous, the equilibrium prices of assets are differentiated by the scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Moore, Kyle & Sun, Pengfei & de Vries, Casper G. & Zhou, Chen, 2013. "The cross-section of tail risks in stock returns," MPRA Paper 45592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45592
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhou, Chen, 2010. "Dependence structure of risk factors and diversification effects," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 531-540, June.
    2. Hyung, Namwon & de Vries, Casper G., 2012. "Simulating and calibrating diversification against black swans," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1162-1175.
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    5. Hyung, Namwon & de Vries, Casper G., 2007. "Portfolio selection with heavy tails," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 383-400, June.
    6. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Testing for differences in the tails of stock-market returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 559-581, December.
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    9. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Ibragimov, Rustam & Walden, Johan, 2008. "Portfolio diversification under local and moderate deviations from power laws," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 594-599, April.
    12. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Georges Hübner & Thomas Lejeune, 2015. "Portfolio choice and investor preferences : A semi-parametric approach based on risk horizon," Working Paper Research 289, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Cui, Hengxin & Tan, Ken Seng & Yang, Fan & Zhou, Chen, 2022. "Asymptotic analysis of portfolio diversification," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 302-325.
    3. Hübner, Georges & Lejeune, Thomas, 2021. "Mental accounts with horizon and asymmetry preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    4. Dolf Diemont & Kyle Moore & Aloy Soppe, 2016. "The Downside of Being Responsible: Corporate Social Responsibility and Tail Risk," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 137(2), pages 213-229, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heavy-tail distribution; safety-first utility; asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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