IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v36y2012i8p1162-1175.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulating and calibrating diversification against black swans

Author

Listed:
  • Hyung, Namwon
  • de Vries, Casper G.

Abstract

An investor concerned with the downside risk of a black swan only needs a small portfolio to reap the benefits from diversification. This matches actual portfolio sizes, but does contrast with received wisdom from mean–variance analysis and intuition regarding fat tailed distributed returns. The concern for downside risk and the fat tail property of the distribution of returns can explain the low portfolio diversification. A simulation and calibration study is used to demonstrate the relevance of the theory and to disentangle the relative importance of the different effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyung, Namwon & de Vries, Casper G., 2012. "Simulating and calibrating diversification against black swans," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1162-1175.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:8:p:1162-1175
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2012.03.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188912000784
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2012.03.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    2. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    3. Rustam Ibragimov, 2009. "Portfolio diversification and value at risk under thick-tailedness," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 565-580.
    4. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
    5. Kan, Raymond & Zhou, Guofu, 2007. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 621-656, September.
    6. Gourieroux, C. & Laurent, J. P. & Scaillet, O., 2000. "Sensitivity analysis of Values at Risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 225-245, November.
    7. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1977. "Risk Reduction and Portfolio Size: An Analytical Solution," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(4), pages 415-437, October.
    8. Statman, Meir, 1987. "How Many Stocks Make a Diversified Portfolio?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 353-363, September.
    9. Campbell, Rachel A. & Kraussl, Roman, 2007. "Revisiting the home bias puzzle: Downside equity risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1239-1260, November.
    10. Jansen, Dennis W. & Koedijk, Kees G. & de Vries, Casper G., 2000. "Portfolio selection with limited downside risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 247-269, November.
    11. Arzac, Enrique R. & Bawa, Vijay S., 1977. "Portfolio choice and equilibrium in capital markets with safety-first investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 277-288, May.
    12. Tang, Gordon Y. N., 2004. "How efficient is naive portfolio diversification? an educational note," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 155-160, April.
    13. Namwon Hyung & Casper G. de Vries, 2010. "The Downside Risk of Heavy Tails induces Low Diversification," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-082/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Dale L. Domian & David A. Louton & Marie D. Racine, 2007. "Diversification in Portfolios of Individual Stocks: 100 Stocks Are Not Enough," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 557-570, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Moore, Kyle & Sun, Pengfei & de Vries, Casper G. & Zhou, Chen, 2013. "The cross-section of tail risks in stock returns," MPRA Paper 45592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Das, Sanjiv R. & Statman, Meir, 2013. "Options and structured products in behavioral portfolios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 137-153.
    3. Alexeev, Vitali & Tapon, Francis, 2013. "Equity Portfolio Diversification: How Many Stocks are Enough? Evidence from Five Developed Markets," Working Papers 2013-16, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 20 Nov 2013.
    4. Vitali Alexeev & Francis Tapon, 2014. "The number of stocks in your portfolio should be larger than you think: diversification evidence from five developed markets," Published Paper Series 2014-4, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Namwon Hyung & Casper G. de Vries, 2010. "The Downside Risk of Heavy Tails induces Low Diversification," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-082/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Vitali Alexeev & Francis Tapon, 2014. "The number of stocks in your portfolio should be larger than you think: diversification evidence from five developed markets," Published Paper Series 2014-4, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. Haensly, Paul J., 2020. "Risk decomposition, estimation error, and naïve diversification," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Alexeev, Vitali & Tapon, Francis, 2013. "Equity Portfolio Diversification: How Many Stocks are Enough? Evidence from Five Developed Markets," Working Papers 2013-16, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 20 Nov 2013.
    5. Azra Zaimovic & Adna Omanovic & Almira Arnaut-Berilo, 2021. "How Many Stocks Are Sufficient for Equity Portfolio Diversification? A Review of the Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-30, November.
    6. DiTraglia, Francis J. & Gerlach, Jeffrey R., 2013. "Portfolio selection: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 305-323.
    7. Vitali Alexeev & Mardi Dungey, 2015. "Equity portfolio diversification with high frequency data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 1205-1215, July.
    8. Ngo, Vu Minh & Nguyen, Huan Huu & Van Nguyen, Phuc, 2023. "Does reinforcement learning outperform deep learning and traditional portfolio optimization models in frontier and developed financial markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Haensly, Paul J., 2022. "Lessons from naïve diversification about the risk-reward trade-off," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    10. Haque, Mahfuzul & Kabir Hassan, M. & Varela, Oscar, 2004. "Safety-first portfolio optimization for US investors in emerging global, Asian and Latin American markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 91-116, January.
    11. Zhou, Chen, 2010. "Dependence structure of risk factors and diversification effects," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 531-540, June.
    12. Namwon Hyung & Casper G. de Vries, 2005. "Portfolio Diversification Effects of Downside Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-008/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Dias, Alexandra, 2016. "The economic value of controlling for large losses in portfolio selection," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 81-91.
    14. Syed Zakir Abbas ZAIDI*, 2017. "Determinants Of Stocks For Optimal Portfolio," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 1-27.
    15. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Tasca, Paolo & Mavrodiev, Pavlin & Schweitzer, Frank, 2014. "Quantifying the impact of leveraging and diversification on systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 43-52.
    17. Tienyu Hwang & Simon Gao & Heather Owen, 2012. "A two‐pass model study of the CAPM: evidence from the UK stock market," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(2), pages 89-104, June.
    18. Ayub, Usman & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali & Abbas, Qaisar, 2015. "Robust analysis for downside risk in portfolio management for a volatile stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 86-96.
    19. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2017. "Portfolio selection with mental accounts and estimation risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 161-186.
    20. Jansen, Dennis W. & Koedijk, Kees G. & de Vries, Casper G., 2000. "Portfolio selection with limited downside risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 247-269, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio diversification; Downside risk; Heavy tails; Calibration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:8:p:1162-1175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.