IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ememar/v38y2019icp115-141.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

One country, two systems? The heavy-tailedness of Chinese A- and H- share markets

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Zhimin
  • Ibragimov, Rustam

Abstract

Chinese A- and H– share markets operate in different institutional environments (emerging/developing v.s. developed) and thus may have different tail risk properties. This paper focuses on the analysis of heavy-tailedness properties of these two markets using recently developed robust inference methods. The equality of tail indices of returns for A and H dual-listed companies cannot be rejected, and some A- and H– share returns may have infinite second moments. Their heavy-tailedness properties did not change significantly with respect to the 2008 financial crisis and the date when the corresponding company starts to be dual-listed.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Zhimin & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2019. "One country, two systems? The heavy-tailedness of Chinese A- and H- share markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 115-141.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:38:y:2019:i:c:p:115-141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2018.11.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566014117305009
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ememar.2018.11.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & Luis A. Nunes Amaral & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "Scaling of the distribution of fluctuations of financial market indices," Papers cond-mat/9905305, arXiv.org.
    2. Danielsson, J. & de Haan, L. & Peng, L. & de Vries, C. G., 2001. "Using a Bootstrap Method to Choose the Sample Fraction in Tail Index Estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 226-248, February.
    3. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Testing for differences in the tails of stock-market returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 559-581, December.
    4. Ng, Lilian & Wu, Fei, 2007. "The trading behavior of institutions and individuals in Chinese equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2695-2710, September.
    5. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor & Xu, Lai, 2015. "Tail risk premia and return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 113-134.
    7. Xavier Gabaix, 2016. "Power Laws in Economics: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 185-206, Winter.
    8. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2006. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 461-504.
    9. Haiqiang Chen & Yanli Zhu, 2015. "An empirical study on the threshold cointegration of Chinese A and H cross-listed shares," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(11), pages 2406-2419, November.
    10. Xavier Gabaix & Augustin Landier, 2008. "Why has CEO Pay Increased So Much?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 49-100.
    11. Basrak, Bojan & Davis, Richard A. & Mikosch, Thomas, 2002. "Regular variation of GARCH processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 95-115, May.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    13. John Fernald & John H. Rogers, 2002. "Puzzles In The Chinese Stock Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 416-432, August.
    14. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Francis Kramarz, 2011. "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence From French Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1453-1498, September.
    15. John W. Galbraith, 2004. "Circuit Breakers and the Tail Index of Equity Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 109-129.
    16. Loretan, Mico & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1994. "Testing the covariance stationarity of heavy-tailed time series: An overview of the theory with applications to several financial datasets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 211-248, January.
    17. Rustam Ibragimov & Artem Prokhorov, 2017. "Heavy Tails and Copulas:Topics in Dependence Modelling in Economics and Finance," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9644, August.
    18. Yan, C. & Zhang, J.W. & Zhang, Y. & Tang, Y.N., 2005. "Power–law properties of Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 425-432.
    19. Rustam Ibragimov & Ulrich K. Müller, 2016. "Inference with Few Heterogeneous Clusters," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 83-96, March.
    20. Albert S. Kyle & Anna A. Obizhaeva, 2016. "Market Microstructure Invariance: Empirical Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84(4), pages 1345-1404, July.
    21. Zhang, Jianhua & Chen, Qinghua & Wang, Yougui, 2009. "Zipf distribution in top Chinese firms and an economic explanation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(10), pages 2020-2024.
    22. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    23. Ibragimov, Rustam, 2007. "Efficiency of linear estimators under heavy-tailedness: convolutions of [alpha]-symmetric distributions," Scholarly Articles 2623749, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    24. Koedijk, Kees G. & Stork, Philip A. & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "Differences between foreign exchange rate regimes: The view from the tails," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 462-473, October.
    25. Aloui, Riadh & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Global financial crisis, extreme interdependences, and contagion effects: The role of economic structure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 130-141, January.
    26. Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2011. "Rank - 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, January.
    27. Evan Gatev & William N. Goetzmann & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2006. "Pairs Trading: Performance of a Relative-Value Arbitrage Rule," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 797-827.
    28. Assaf, A., 2009. "Extreme observations and risk assessment in the equity markets of MENA region: Tail measures and Value-at-Risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 109-116, June.
    29. Bryan Kelly & Hao Jiang, 2014. "Editor's Choice Tail Risk and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(10), pages 2841-2871.
    30. Ibragimov, Rustam & Jaffee, Dwight & Walden, Johan, 2011. "Diversification disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 333-348, February.
    31. Wolfgang Keller & Stephen Ross Yeaple, 2013. "The Gravity of Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1414-1444, June.
    32. Kim, Kenneth A., 2001. "Price limits and stock market volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 131-136, April.
    33. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    34. Blattberg, Robert C & Gonedes, Nicholas J, 1974. "A Comparison of the Stable and Student Distributions as Statistical Models for Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 244-280, April.
    35. Cho, David D. & Russell, Jeffrey & Tiao, George C. & Tsay, Ruey, 2003. "The magnet effect of price limits: evidence from high-frequency data on Taiwan Stock Exchange," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 133-168, February.
    36. Hall, Peter, 1990. "Using the bootstrap to estimate mean squared error and select smoothing parameter in nonparametric problems," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 177-203, February.
    37. Cont, Rama & Bouchaud, Jean-Philipe, 2000. "Herd Behavior And Aggregate Fluctuations In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 170-196, June.
    38. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Do global factors impact BRICS stock markets? A quantile regression approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-17.
    39. Brown, Stephen J, et al, 1992. "Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 553-580.
    40. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
    41. Qian Su & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Isabel Kit-Ming Yan, 2007. "On the convergence of the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets: a cointegration analysis of the A and H shares," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(16), pages 1349-1357.
    42. Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-216, April.
    43. Ankudinov, Andrei & Ibragimov, Rustam & Lebedev, Oleg, 2017. "Heavy tails and asymmetry of returns in the Russian stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 200-219.
    44. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    45. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & Xavier Gabaix & H. Eugene Stanley, 2000. "Statistical Properties of Share Volume Traded in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0008113, arXiv.org.
    46. Kim, Kenneth & Rhee, S Ghon, 1997. "Price Limit Performance: Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 885-899, June.
    47. Zhang, J.W. & Zhang, Y. & Kleinert, H., 2007. "Power tails of index distributions in chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 377(1), pages 166-172.
    48. Cai, Charlie X. & McGuinness, Paul B. & Zhang, Qi, 2011. "The pricing dynamics of cross-listed securities: The case of Chinese A- and H-shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2123-2136, August.
    49. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 255-294, May.
    50. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    51. Gabaix, Xavier & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2011. "Rank − 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39.
    52. Carmela Quintos & Zhenhong Fan & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Structural Change Tests in Tail Behaviour and the Asian Crisis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(3), pages 633-663.
    53. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Survivorship bias and attrition effects in measures of performance persistence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 337-374, December.
    54. Albert S. Kyle & Anna A. Obizhaeva, 2016. "Market Microstructure Invariance: Empirical Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1345-1404, July.
    55. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1775-1798 is not listed on IDEAS
    56. Rustam Ibragimov & Johan Walden, 2010. "Optimal Bundling Strategies Under Heavy-Tailed Valuations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1963-1976, November.
    57. Ibragimov, Rustam & Müller, Ulrich K., 2010. "t-Statistic Based Correlation and Heterogeneity Robust Inference," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 453-468.
    58. Ibragimov, Rustam, 2007. "Efficiency Of Linear Estimators Under Heavy-Tailedness: Convolutions Of Α-Symmetric Distributions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 501-517, June.
    59. Ibragimov, Marat & Ibragimov, Rustam & Kattuman, Paul, 2013. "Emerging markets and heavy tails," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2546-2559.
    60. Candelon, Bertrand & Straetmans, Stefan, 2006. "Testing for multiple regimes in the tail behavior of emerging currency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1187-1205, November.
    61. Xavier Gabaix, 1999. "Zipf's Law for Cities: An Explanation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(3), pages 739-767.
    62. Gopikrishnan, P. & Plerou, V. & Gabaix, X. & Amaral, L.A.N. & Stanley, H.E., 2001. "Price fluctuations and market activity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 137-143.
    63. V. Plerou & P. Gopikrishnan & X. Gabaix & L. A. N. Amaral & H. E. Stanley, 2001. "Price fluctuations, market activity and trading volume," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 262-269.
    64. Jun Liu & Allan Timmermann, 2013. "Optimal Convergence Trade Strategies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 1048-1086.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abduraimova, Kumushoy, 2022. "Contagion and tail risk in complex financial networks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Rustam Ibragimov & Jihyun Kim & Anton Skrobotov, 2020. "New robust inference for predictive regressions," Papers 2006.01191, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    3. Yao, Yinhong & Li, Jingyu & Chen, Wei, 2024. "Multiscale extreme risk spillovers among the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, and London stock markets: Comparing the impacts of three Stock Connect programs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1217-1233.
    4. Ba, Shusong & Li, Lu & Huang, Wenli & Yang, Chen, 2020. "Heterogeneity risks and negative externality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 401-415.
    5. Walter Distaso & Rustam Ibragimov & Alexander Semenov & Anton Skrobotov, 2020. "COVID-19: Tail Risk and Predictive Regressions," Papers 2009.02486, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    6. Rustam Ibragimov & Rasmus Pedersen & Anton Skrobotov, 2020. "New Approaches to Robust Inference on Market (Non-)Efficiency, Volatility Clustering and Nonlinear Dependence," Papers 2006.01212, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    7. Echaust, Krzysztof & Just, Małgorzata, 2022. "Is gold still a safe haven for stock markets? New insights through the tail thickness of portfolio return distributions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ankudinov, Andrei & Ibragimov, Rustam & Lebedev, Oleg, 2017. "Heavy tails and asymmetry of returns in the Russian stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 200-219.
    2. Ibragimov, Marat & Ibragimov, Rustam & Kattuman, Paul, 2013. "Emerging markets and heavy tails," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2546-2559.
    3. Ibragimov Marat & Khamidov Rufat, 2010. "Heavy-Tailedness and Volatility in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets: Theory and Empirics," EERC Working Paper Series 10/06e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    4. Ankudinov, Andrei & Ibragimov, Rustam & Lebedev, Oleg, 2017. "Sanctions and the Russian stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 150-162.
    5. Rustam Ibragimov & Marat Ibragimov & Rufat Khamidov, 2010. "Measuring Inequality in CIS Countries: Theory and Empirics," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 88, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Ankudinov, Andrei & Ibragimov, Rustam & Lebedev, Oleg, 2017. "Extreme movements of the Russian stock market and their consequences for management and economic modeling," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 45, pages 75-92.
    7. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    8. Gu, Zhiye & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2018. "The “Cubic Law of the Stock Returns” in emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 182-190.
    9. Einmahl, John & He, Y., 2020. "Unified Extreme Value Estimation for Heterogeneous Data," Other publications TiSEM dfe6c38c-823b-4394-b4fd-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Walter Distaso & Rustam Ibragimov & Alexander Semenov & Anton Skrobotov, 2020. "COVID-19: Tail Risk and Predictive Regressions," Papers 2009.02486, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    11. Ibragimov, Rustam, 2014. "On the robustness of location estimators in models of firm growth under heavy-tailedness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 181(1), pages 25-33.
    12. Makoto Nirei & John Stachurski & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2018. "Trade Clustering and Power Laws in Financial Markets (Published in Theoretical Economics, 15:1365?1398, 2020)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-450, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    13. Nirei, Makoto & Stachurski, John & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2020. "Trade clustering and power laws in financial markets," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(4), November.
    14. Einmahl, John & He, Y., 2020. "Unified Extreme Value Estimation for Heterogeneous Data," Discussion Paper 2020-025, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    15. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2012. "International diversification: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 871-885.
    16. Abduraimova, Kumushoy, 2022. "Contagion and tail risk in complex financial networks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 255-294, May.
    19. Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2018. "Time-varying volatility and the power law distribution of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 123-141.
    20. Straetmans, Stefan & Candelon, Bertrand, 2013. "Long-term asset tail risks in developed and emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1832-1844.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:38:y:2019:i:c:p:115-141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.