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Portfolio selection with heavy tails

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  • Hyung, Namwon
  • de Vries, Casper G.

Abstract

Consider the portfolio problem of choosing the mix between stocks and bonds under a downside risk constraint. Typically stock returns exhibit fatter tails than bonds corresponding to their greater downside risk. Downside risk criteria like the safety first criterion therefore often select corner solutions in the sense of a bonds only portfolio. This is due to a focus on the asymptotically dominating first order Pareto term of the portfolio return distribution. We show that if second order terms are taken into account, a balanced solution emerges. The theory is applied to empirical examples from the literature. This discussion paper has resulted in a publication in the Journal of Empirical Finance , 2007, 14(3).
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Suggested Citation

  • Hyung, Namwon & de Vries, Casper G., 2007. "Portfolio selection with heavy tails," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 383-400, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:14:y:2007:i:3:p:383-400
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    1. Danielsson, J. & de Haan, L. & Peng, L. & de Vries, C. G., 2001. "Using a Bootstrap Method to Choose the Sample Fraction in Tail Index Estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 226-248, February.
    2. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    3. Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Extreme observations and diversification in Latin American emerging equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 971-986, December.
    4. Gourieroux, C. & Laurent, J. P. & Scaillet, O., 2000. "Sensitivity analysis of Values at Risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 225-245, November.
    5. Arzac, Enrique R. & Bawa, Vijay S., 1977. "Portfolio choice and equilibrium in capital markets with safety-first investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 277-288, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen Zou, 2009. "Dependence structure of risk factors and diversification effects," DNB Working Papers 219, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Migliavacca, Milena & Goodell, John W. & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2023. "A bibliometric review of portfolio diversification literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. J. D. Opdyke, 2014. "Estimating Operational Risk Capital with Greater Accuracy, Precision, and Robustness," Papers 1406.0389, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2014.
    5. Moore, Kyle & Sun, Pengfei & de Vries, Casper G. & Zhou, Chen, 2013. "The cross-section of tail risks in stock returns," MPRA Paper 45592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Zhou, Chen, 2010. "Dependence structure of risk factors and diversification effects," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 531-540, June.
    7. Dias, Alexandra, 2016. "The economic value of controlling for large losses in portfolio selection," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 81-91.
    8. Coqueret, Guillaume, 2014. "Second order risk aggregation with the Bernstein copula," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 150-158.
    9. Kyle Moore & Pengfei Sun & Casper de Vries & Chen Zhou, 2013. "Shape Homogeneity and Scale Heterogeneity of Downside Tail Risk," Working Papers 13-13, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    10. Xiangjin B. Chen & Param Silvapulle & Mervyn Silvapulle, 2013. "A Semiparametric Approach to Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall and Optimum Asset Allocation in Stock-Bond Portfolios," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    11. Sergio Ortobelli Lozza & Tommaso Lando & Filomena Petronio & Tomáš Tichý, 2016. "Asymptotic Multivariate Dominance: A Financial Application," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1097-1115, December.
    12. DiTraglia, Francis J. & Gerlach, Jeffrey R., 2013. "Portfolio selection: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 305-323.
    13. Hilal, Sawsan & Poon, Ser-Huang & Tawn, Jonathan, 2011. "Hedging the black swan: Conditional heteroskedasticity and tail dependence in S&P500 and VIX," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2374-2387, September.
    14. Montshioa, Keitumetse & Muteba Mwamba, John Weirstrass & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2021. "Asset allocation in extreme market conditions: a comparative analysis between developed and emerging economies," MPRA Paper 106248, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mainik, Georg & Mitov, Georgi & Rüschendorf, Ludger, 2015. "Portfolio optimization for heavy-tailed assets: Extreme Risk Index vs. Markowitz," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 115-134.
    16. Mendoza-Velázquez, Alfonso & Galvanovskis, Evalds, 2009. "Introducing the GED-Copula with an application to Financial Contagion in Latin America," MPRA Paper 46669, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2010.
    17. Alejandro Bernales & Diether W. Beuermann & Gonzalo Cortazar, 2014. "Thinly traded securities and risk management," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 41(1 Year 20), pages 5-48, June.
    18. Dias, Alexandra, 2014. "Semiparametric estimation of multi-asset portfolio tail risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 398-408.
    19. Chen, Xiangjin B. & Silvapulle, Param & Silvapulle, Mervyn, 2014. "A semiparametric approach to value-at-risk, expected shortfall and optimum asset allocation in stock–bond portfolios," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 230-242.
    20. Mendoza, Alfonso. & Galvanovskis, Evalds., 2014. "La cópula GED bivariada. Una aplicación en entornos de crisis," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(323), pages .721-746, julio-sep.
    21. Moore, Kyle & Sun, Pengei & de Vries, Casper G. & Zhou, Chen, 2013. "The drivers of downside equity tail risk," MPRA Paper 45591, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Georg Mainik & Georgi Mitov & Ludger Ruschendorf, 2015. "Portfolio optimization for heavy-tailed assets: Extreme Risk Index vs. Markowitz," Papers 1505.04045, arXiv.org.
    23. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Montshioa, Keitumetse, 2024. "Navigating extreme market fluctuations: asset allocation strategies in developed vs. emerging economies," MPRA Paper 119910, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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