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Real GDP per capita in developed countries

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  • Kitov, Ivan

Abstract

Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components – a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a numerator potentially constant for the largest developed economies. Statistical analysis of 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2004 shows a very weak linear trend in the annual GDP per capita increment for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, Italy, and Spain. The UK, Australia, and Canada show a larger positive linear trend. The fluctuations around the trend values are characterized by a quasi-normal distribution with potentially Levy distribution for far tails. Developing countries demonstrate the increment values far below the mean increment for the most developed economies. This indicates an underperformance in spite of large relative growth rates.

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  • Kitov, Ivan, 2006. "Real GDP per capita in developed countries," MPRA Paper 2738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2738
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivan Kitov, 2005. "GDP growth rate and population," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(9), pages 1.
    2. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Ivan Kitov, 2005. "Modelling the transition from a socialist to capitalist economic system," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(11), pages 1.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:28:y:2005:i:11:p:a0 is not listed on IDEAS
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Growth rate of the GDP per capita revisited. 3. The results from 2007, 2009, and 2012 revisited. The model
      by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics on 2020-12-13 11:01:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan O. KITOV, 2008. "The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 203-222.
    2. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV & Svetlana A. DOLINSKAYA, 2009. "Modelling Real Gdp Per Capita In The Usa:Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(1(7)_ Spr).
    3. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2012. "Real GDP per capita since 1870," MPRA Paper 39021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kitov, Ivan, 2021. "Real GDP per capita: global redistribution of economic power," MPRA Paper 105875, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Feb 2021.
    5. Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Hasan, Syed Akif & Osman, Ms. Amber, 2012. "Do consumers buy bread and diamond with the same attachment?," MPRA Paper 45094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan," MPRA Paper 5464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kitov, Ivan, 2006. "The Japanese economy," MPRA Paper 2737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "Inflation, Unemployment, Labor Force Change in European Counties," Mechonomics mechonomics7, Socionet.
    9. Ivan O. KITOV, 2010. "Predicting Real Economic Growth In France, Germany, New Zealand, And The United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(1(11)_Spr), pages 48-54.
    10. Guironnet Jean-Pascal, 2009. "Technological Catch-up and Scale Effect in OECD Countries: A Bipolarized Growth Convergence," Working Papers 09-05, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    11. Ivan O. Kitov, 2010. "Inflation and unemployment in Japan: from 1980 to 2050," Papers 1002.0277, arXiv.org.
    12. Kitov, Ivan, 2012. "Why price inflation in developed countries is systematically underestimated," MPRA Paper 39059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Hasan, Syed Akif & Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Osman, Mohammad, 2012. "Co-movements of consumption patterns of high and low involvement products," MPRA Paper 37659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK," MPRA Paper 15503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic development; economic trend; business cycle; GDP per capita;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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