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GDP growth rate and population

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Kitov

    (IDG RAS)

Abstract

Real GDP growth rate in developed countries is found to be a sum of two terms. The first term is the reciprocal value of the duration of the period of mean income growth with work experience, Tcr. The second term is defined by relative change of the number of people of specific age (9 years of age in the USA), (1/2)*dN9(t) /N9(t) , where N9(t) is the number of 9-year-olds at time t. The Tcr grows as the square root of real GDP per capita. Similar relationship is derived for real GDP per capita. Absolute value of GDP per capita growth is a combination of an economic trend term and the same specific age population term. The first term during last 55 years is equal to $400 (2002 fixed dollar) divided by the attained value of real GDP per capita. Inversion of the measured GDP data is used to recover corresponding change of the specific age population from 1955 to 2003. The GDP based population recovery method is of a higher accuracy than routine censuses.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Kitov, 2005. "GDP growth rate and population," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(9), pages 1.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-05aa0009
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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/2005/Volume28/EB-05AA0009A.pdf
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. have a happy 2017 recession
      by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics on 2017-01-02 16:24:00
    2. There is no recession threat in the USA due to immigration
      by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics on 2023-07-06 09:32:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan O. Kitov, 2006. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in the USA," Working Papers 28, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    2. Ivan O. KITOV, 2009. "The Evolution Of Real Gdp Per Capita In Developed Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(2(8)_ Sum).
    3. Kitov, Ivan, 2006. "Real GDP per capita in developed countries," MPRA Paper 2738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV & Svetlana A. DOLINSKAYA, 2009. "Modelling Real Gdp Per Capita In The Usa:Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(1(7)_ Spr).
    5. Ivan, Kitov, 2006. "Exact prediction of inflation in the USA," MPRA Paper 2735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries," MPRA Paper 14557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK," MPRA Paper 15503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2012. "Real GDP per capita since 1870," Papers 1205.5671, arXiv.org.
    9. Ivan O. KITOV, 2010. "Predicting Real Economic Growth In France, Germany, New Zealand, And The United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(1(11)_Spr), pages 48-54.
    10. Aneel Bhusal, 2022. "Impact of Information and Communication Technology on Individual Well-being," Papers 2202.00006, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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