IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/9808.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy

Author

Listed:
  • Kitov, Ivan
  • Kitov, Oleg
  • Dolinskaya, Svetlana

Abstract

We present a comprehensive macroeconomic model for the U.S. There exist strict long-term relations between real GDP, price inflation, labor force participation, productivity, and unemployment. The evolution of real GDP depends only on exogenous demographic forces. Other macro-variables follow up the real GDP. The links between the variables have been valid during the last several decades. All relations were (successfully) tested for cointegration. Statistical estimates are also presented. The relationships allow a reliable prediction of the macroeconomic state at very large (more than 9 years) time horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9808
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9808/1/MPRA_paper_9808.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kitov, Ivan, 2006. "Real GDP per capita in developed countries," MPRA Paper 2738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV & Svetlana A. DOLINSKAYA, 2009. "Modelling Real Gdp Per Capita In The Usa:Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(1(7)_ Spr).
    3. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2008. "Long-Term Linear Trends In Consumer Price Indices," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(2(4)_Summ).
    4. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA," MPRA Paper 2734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ivan O. KITOV, 2008. "The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 203-222.
    6. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate in France: cointegration test," MPRA Paper 2736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices In The Central European Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(3(9)_Fall).
    2. Ivan O. KITOV, 2010. "Predicting Real Economic Growth In France, Germany, New Zealand, And The United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(1(11)_Spr), pages 48-54.
    3. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "Modelling and predicting labor force productivity," MPRA Paper 15152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ivan O. Kitov, 2009. "Does economics need a scientific revolution?," Papers 0904.0729, arXiv.org.
    5. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "The anti-Phillips curve," MPRA Paper 13641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2010. "S&P 500 returns revisited," MPRA Paper 21733, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK," MPRA Paper 15503, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV & Svetlana A. DOLINSKAYA, 2008. "Comprehensive Macro Ï¿½ Model For The Us Economy," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(4(6)_Wint).
    2. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan," MPRA Paper 5464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Germany," MPRA Paper 5088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ivan O. KITOV, 2008. "The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 203-222.
    5. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "The anti-Phillips curve," MPRA Paper 13641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "PPI of durable and nondurable goods: 1985-2016," MPRA Paper 15874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ivan O. KITOV, 2010. "Predicting Real Economic Growth In France, Germany, New Zealand, And The United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(1(11)_Spr), pages 48-54.
    8. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting gold ores price," MPRA Paper 15873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2012. "Real GDP per capita since 1870," Papers 1205.5671, arXiv.org.
    10. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting the price index for jewelry and jewelry products: 2009 to 2016," MPRA Paper 15875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK," MPRA Paper 15503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Oleg KITOV & Ivan KITOV, 2012. "A Win-Win Monetary Policy In Canada," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(6(18)/ Su), pages 160-176.
    13. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "A fair price for motor fuel in the United States," MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "Unemployment and inflation in Western Europe: solution by the boundary element method," MPRA Paper 14341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "Modelling and predicting labor force productivity," MPRA Paper 15152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV, 2010. "Dynamics Of Unemployment And Inflation In Western Europe: Solution By The 1- D Boundary Elements Method," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(2(12)/Sum), pages 94-113.
    17. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2008. "Long-Term Linear Trends In Consumer Price Indices," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(2(4)_Summ).
    18. Guironnet Jean-Pascal, 2009. "Technological Catch-up and Scale Effect in OECD Countries: A Bipolarized Growth Convergence," Working Papers 09-05, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    19. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "Inflation, Unemployment, Labor Force Change in European Counties," Mechonomics mechonomics7, Socionet.
    20. Mosso-Martínez, Margarita M. & López-Herrera, Francisco, 2020. "Variables económicas y deterioro de la calidad de la cartera de hipotecas bursatilizadas en México," eseconomía, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 15(52), pages 47-68, Primer se.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    US economy; macroeconomic model; real GDP; inflation; unemployment; labor force; productivity; demography;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9808. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.