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Predicting Real Economic Growth In France, Germany, New Zealand, And The United Kingdom

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  • Ivan O. KITOV

Abstract

The growth rate of real GDP per capita is modeled and predicted at various time horizons for France, Germany, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. The rate of growth is represented by a sum of two components – a gradually decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in country-specific age population. The trend is an inverse function of real GDP per capita with constant numerator. Previously, similar models were developed and validated for the USA and Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan O. KITOV, 2010. "Predicting Real Economic Growth In France, Germany, New Zealand, And The United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(1(11)_Spr), pages 48-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:5:y:2010:i:5(1)_spring2010:p:92
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivan Kitov, 2005. "GDP growth rate and population," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(9), pages 1.
    2. Kitov, Ivan, 2006. "Real GDP per capita in developed countries," MPRA Paper 2738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kitov, Ivan, 2006. "The Japanese economy," MPRA Paper 2737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ivan O. Kitov, 2009. "Does economics need a scientific revolution?," Papers 0904.0729, arXiv.org.
    5. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV & Svetlana A. DOLINSKAYA, 2009. "Modelling Real Gdp Per Capita In The Usa:Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(1(7)_ Spr).
    6. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2008. "Economics need a scientific revolution," Papers 0810.5306, arXiv.org.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. have a happy 2017 recession
      by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics on 2017-01-02 16:24:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2010. "S&P 500 returns revisited," MPRA Paper 21733, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real GDP per capita; modeling; prediction; population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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