IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/2702.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Opium for the Masses: How Foreign Free Media Can Stabilize Authoritarian Regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Kern, Holger
  • Hainmueller, Jens

Abstract

A common claim in the democratization literature is that foreign free media undermine authoritarian rule. No reliable micro-level evidence on this topic exists, however, since independent survey research is rarely possible in authoritarian regimes and self-selection into media consumption complicates causal inferences. In this case study of the impact of West German television on political attitudes in communist East Germany, we address these problems by making use of previously secret survey data and a natural experiment. While most East Germans were able to tune in to West German broadcasts, some of them were cut off from West German television due to East Germany's topography. We exploit this plausibly exogenous variation to estimate the impact of West German television on East Germans' political attitudes using instrumental variable estimators. Contrary to conventional wisdom, East Germans who watched West German television were more satisfied with life in East Germany and the communist regime. To explain this surprising finding, we demonstrate that West German television's role in transmitting political information not available in the state-controlled communist media was insignificant and that television primarily served as a means of entertainment for East Germans. Archival material on the reaction of the East German regime to the availability of West German television corroborates our argument.

Suggested Citation

  • Kern, Holger & Hainmueller, Jens, 2007. "Opium for the Masses: How Foreign Free Media Can Stabilize Authoritarian Regimes," MPRA Paper 2702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2702
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2702/1/MPRA_paper_2702.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall.
    2. James Robins & Andrea Rotnitzky, 2004. "Estimation of treatment effects in randomised trials with non-compliance and a dichotomous outcome using structural mean models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 91(4), pages 763-783, December.
    3. Stefano DellaVigna & Ethan Kaplan, 2007. "The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 1187-1234.
    4. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-475, March.
    5. Abadie, Alberto, 2003. "Semiparametric instrumental variable estimation of treatment response models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 231-263, April.
    6. James J. Heckman & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2000. "Local Instrumental Variables," NBER Technical Working Papers 0252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2000. "Monotone Instrumental Variables, with an Application to the Returns to Schooling," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 997-1012, July.
    8. repec:fth:prinin:455 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. S. Vansteelandt & E. Goetghebeur, 2003. "Causal inference with generalized structural mean models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(4), pages 817-835, November.
    10. Richard Blundell & James L. Powell, 2001. "Endogeneity in nonparametric and semiparametric regression models," CeMMAP working papers 09/01, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    11. Robinson, Michael J., 1976. "Public Affairs Television and the Growth of Political Malaise: The Case of “The Selling of the Pentagon”," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 409-432, June.
    12. Newton, Kenneth, 1999. "Mass Media Effects: Mobilization or Media Malaise?," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 577-599, September.
    13. Matthew Gentzkow, 2006. "Television and Voter Turnout," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 931-972.
    14. Heckman, James J. & Robb, Richard Jr., 1985. "Alternative methods for evaluating the impact of interventions : An overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 239-267.
    15. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    16. Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens & D.B. Rubin, 1993. "Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables," NBER Technical Working Papers 0136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ruben Enikolopov & Maria Petrova & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2011. "Media and Political Persuasion: Evidence from Russia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3253-3285, December.
    2. Hennighausen, Tanja, 2015. "Exposure to television and individual beliefs: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 956-980.
    3. Bruno Frey, 2011. "Tullock challenges: happiness, revolutions, and democracy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 269-281, September.
    4. Leonardo Bursztyn & Davide Cantoni, 2016. "Tear in the Iron Curtain: The Impact of Western Television on Consumption Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 25-41, March.
    5. Stefano Della Vigna & Ruben Enikolopov & Vera Mironova & Maria Petrova & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2014. "Cross-Border Media and Nationalism: Evidence from Serbian Radio in Croatia," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 103-132, July.
    6. Alexander Libman, 2012. "Learning to Be Different: Quantitative Research in Economics and Political Science," Rationality, Markets and Morals, Frankfurt School Verlag, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, vol. 3(62), December.
    7. Strömberg, David & Prat, Andrea, 2011. "The Political Economy of Mass Media," CEPR Discussion Papers 8246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chris Sakellariou, 2006. "Education policy reform, local average treatment effect and returns to schooling from instrumental variables in the Philippines," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 473-481.
    2. Guilhem Bascle, 2008. "Controlling for endogeneity with instrumental variables in strategic management research," Post-Print hal-00576795, HAL.
    3. Aassve, Arnstein & Arpino, Bruno, 2008. "Estimation of causal effects of fertility on economic wellbeing: evidence from rural Vietnam," ISER Working Paper Series 2007-27, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Eva Deuchert & Martin Huber, 2017. "A Cautionary Tale About Control Variables in IV Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(3), pages 411-425, June.
    5. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    6. Imbens, Guido W., 2014. "Instrumental Variables: An Econometrician's Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 8048, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Mahoukede, Kinkingninhoun-Medagbe & Aliou, Diagne & Gauthier, Biaou, 2015. "Impact of Use of Credit in rice farming on rice Productivity and Income in Benin," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211635, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Harry Patrinos & Chris Sakellariou, 2005. "Schooling and Labor Market Impacts of a Natural Policy Experiment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 19(4), pages 705-719, December.
    9. Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae Lee, 2023. "Identifying the Effect of Persuasion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(8), pages 2032-2058.
    10. Guido W. Imbens & Whitney K. Newey, 2009. "Identification and Estimation of Triangular Simultaneous Equations Models Without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1481-1512, September.
    11. Paul S. Clarke & Frank Windmeijer, 2012. "Instrumental Variable Estimators for Binary Outcomes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(500), pages 1638-1652, December.
    12. Doyle, Joseph J., 2013. "Causal effects of foster care: An instrumental-variables approach," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1143-1151.
    13. Asadul Islam & Dietrich K. Fausten, 2008. "Skilled Immigration and Wages in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(s1), pages 66-82, September.
    14. James J. Heckman & Sergio Urzua & Edward Vytlacil, 2006. "Understanding Instrumental Variables in Models with Essential Heterogeneity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 389-432, August.
    15. Chiburis, Richard C., 2010. "Semiparametric bounds on treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(2), pages 267-275, December.
    16. Dario José Salcedo Monroy, 2015. "Local Media: Expansion of Radio and Political Accountability. Evidence from Colombia," Documentos CEDE 12566, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    17. Bo Wei & Limin Peng & Mei‐Jie Zhang & Jason P. Fine, 2021. "Estimation of causal quantile effects with a binary instrumental variable and censored data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 83(3), pages 559-578, July.
    18. Tommasi, Denni & Zhang, Lina, 2024. "Bounding program benefits when participation is misreported," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    19. Ravallion, Martin, 2008. "Evaluating Anti-Poverty Programs," Handbook of Development Economics, in: T. Paul Schultz & John A. Strauss (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 59, pages 3787-3846, Elsevier.
    20. Joshua D. Angrist, 2004. "Treatment effect heterogeneity in theory and practice," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(494), pages 52-83, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    instrumental variables; causal inference; local average response function; media effects; East Germany; democratization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2702. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.