IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v3y1997i1p39-56.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Univariate Modelling Using Periodic and Non-Periodic Analysis: Inbound Tourism to Japan, Australia and New Zealand Compared

Author

Listed:
  • Lindsay W. Turner
  • N. Kulendran
  • H. Fernando

Abstract

This paper examines three hypotheses using the time-series between 1978 and 1995 of quarterly tourist flows into Japan, Australia and New Zealand. First, whether periodic models can be used to successfully forecast tourism arrival series. Second, whether the Basic Structural Model (BSM) can forecast as accurately as the Box Jenkins (ARIMA) model. Third, whether the integrated seasonal univariate models forecast more accurately than the naive process. The paper concludes that the periodic model does not improve forecast accuracy. The BSM model performs at least as well as the ARIMA model, and the naive process is not a substitute for seasonal integrated models.

Suggested Citation

  • Lindsay W. Turner & N. Kulendran & H. Fernando, 1997. "Univariate Modelling Using Periodic and Non-Periodic Analysis: Inbound Tourism to Japan, Australia and New Zealand Compared," Tourism Economics, , vol. 3(1), pages 39-56, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:3:y:1997:i:1:p:39-56
    DOI: 10.1177/135481669700300103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/135481669700300103
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/135481669700300103?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richa Dhariwal, 2005. "Tourist Arrivals in India: How Important are Domestic Disorders?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(2), pages 185-205, June.
    2. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0533, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    3. J. Cunado & L.A. Gil-Alana & F. Pérez de Gracia, 2004. "Modelling Monthly Spanish Tourism: A Seasonal Fractionally Integrated Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(1), pages 79-94, March.
    4. du Preez, Johann & Witt, Stephen F., 2003. "Univariate versus multivariate time series forecasting: an application to international tourism demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 435-451.
    5. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chien, Mei-Se, 2008. "Structural breaks, tourism development, and economic growth: Evidence from Taiwan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 358-368.
    6. Jo C. Vu, 2006. "Effect of Demand Volume on Forecasting Accuracy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 12(2), pages 263-276, June.
    7. J. Cunado & L.A. Gil-Alana & F. Péarez de Gracia, 2005. "The Nature of Seasonality in Spanish Tourism Time Series," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 483-499, December.
    8. Willem A. Naudé & Andrea Saayman, 2005. "Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Africa: A Panel Data Regression Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 365-391, September.
    9. Nicholas Apergis & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 78-98, February.
    10. Saroja Selvanathan, 2007. "The effect of war and other factors on Sri Lankan tourism," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 35-38.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:3:y:1997:i:1:p:39-56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.