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Modelling International Travel Demand from Singapore to Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Christine Lim

    (School of Tourism and Hotel Management, Griffith University)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Department of Economics, University of Western Australia)

Abstract

Prior to the recent Asian currency and economic crises, tourism from Asia had rapidly become Australia's major tourism export industry. Tourists from Singapore, which is Australia's fifth major market, represented 6% of international tourist arrivals to Australia in 1996. The average annual growth rate of tourist arrivals from Singapore of around 20% over 1990-96 far exceeded the 10.5% average annual percentage growth rate of all tourist arrivals to Australia over the same period (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1997). Despite the Asian currency and economic crises in 1997-98, tourist arrivals to Australia from Singapore has continued to grow slowly. It is imperative to consider the economic factors influencing international tourism demand for Australia by Singapore, and to undertake a sensitivity analysis of tourist arrivals to changes in the factors. The purpose of the paper is to estimate the income, price and transportation cost elasticities of inbound tourism from Singapore to Australia using seasonally unadjusted quarterly data. Initially, estimation is undertaken using ordinary least squares. Given New Zealand's proximity to Australia, it is also useful to determine using a single-equation model if Australia and New Zealand are substitute or complementary destinations for Singaporean tourists by examining the effects of the relative price changes in New Zealand and Australia on international travel demand for Australia. In addition, seasonal influences are examined using the single-equation model. The OLS estimates of the appropriate single-equation model are also compared with the estimates obtained using the cointegration method in Lim and McAleer (2001).

Suggested Citation

  • Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2003. "Modelling International Travel Demand from Singapore to Australia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-214, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2003cf214
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    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2003/2003cf214.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lim, Christine, 1997. "The functional specification of international tourism demand models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 535-543.
    2. McAleer, Michael, 1995. "The significance of testing empirical non-nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 149-171, May.
    3. N. Kulendran, 1996. "Modelling Quarterly Tourist Flows to Australia Using Cointegration Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 2(3), pages 203-222, September.
    4. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    5. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2000. "A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 499-509.
    6. Alan Morris & Ken Wilson & Steve Bakalis, 1995. "Modelling Tourism Flows from Europe to Australia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 1(2), pages 147-167, June.
    7. World Bank, 2000. "World Development Indicators 2000," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13828.
    8. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1599-1619.
    9. Clive Morley, 2000. "Demand Modelling Methodologies: Integration and other Issues," Tourism Economics, , vol. 6(1), pages 5-19, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Celestine Grace Xueting Cai & Nigel Wei-Han Lim & Vinh Anh Huynh & Aparna Ananthakrishnan & Saudamini Vishwanath Dabak & Borame Sue Lee Dickens & Dian Faradiba & Sarin KC & Alec Morton & Minah Park & , 2023. "Economic Analysis of Border Control Policies during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Modelling Study to Inform Cross-Border Travel Policy between Singapore and Thailand," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Willem A. Naudé & Andrea Saayman, 2005. "Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Africa: A Panel Data Regression Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 365-391, September.
    3. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Prasert Chaitip & N. Rangaswamy, 2008. "A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Test of the Modeling International Tourism Demand in India," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 8(1), pages 95-124.
    4. Chukiat CHAIBOONSRI & Prasert CHAITIP, 2012. "Trends and Perspectives Regarding the Evolution of the Concept of Economic Intelligence within the Context of the Economic Crisis," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 2(2), pages 1-7, April.
    5. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Jittaporn Sriboonjit & Thanes Sriwichailamphan & Prasert Chaitip & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2010. "A Panel Cointegration Analysis: An Application To International Tourism Demand Of Thailand," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 10(3), pages 69-86.

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