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Aggregate Temperature Measures and the Overestimation of the Impact of Global Warming on Crop Yield

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  • Huang, Kaixing
  • Zhang, Peng

Abstract

Existing studies generally use ``aggregate'' temperature measures, such as mean temperature, degree-days, temperature bins, and piece-wise linear function within the growing season, to estimate the impact of global warming on crop yield. These temperature measures blend temperatures from different phenological stages of crop growth and thus implicitly assume that temperatures are additively substitutable within the growing season. However, this assumption contrasts with agronomic knowledge that crops are more sensitive to temperatures in certain phenological stages. Utilizing a unique site-level data on the detailed phenological stages of major crops in China, combined with crop production data and daily weather data, we develop an econometric model with stage-specific temperature measures. We then compare our estimates with models using traditional aggregate temperature measures, and find that adopting an aggregate temperature measure could overestimate the damage of global warming on crop yield up to two times that estimated using stage-specific temperature measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Kaixing & Zhang, Peng, 2024. "Aggregate Temperature Measures and the Overestimation of the Impact of Global Warming on Crop Yield," MPRA Paper 122600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:122600
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/122600/1/MPRA_paper_122600.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marshall Burke & Kyle Emerick, 2016. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 106-140, August.
    2. Chen, Shuai & Gong, Binlei, 2021. "Response and adaptation of agriculture to climate change: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    3. Richard M. Adams, 1989. "Global Climate Change and Agriculture: An Economic Perspective," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1272-1279.
    4. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global warming; crop yield; temperature measure; crop phenological stages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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