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Exchange rate policy and export performance in a landlocked developing country: The case of Nepal

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  • Ramesh C Paudel
  • Paul J Burke

Abstract

This paper examines the implications of Nepal’s exchange rate policy for its export performance over the period 1980–2010. We first document Nepal’s long-standing currency peg against the Indian rupee and that Nepal’s real exchange rate appreciated substantially from the late 1990s. We then employ a gravity modeling approach to confirm that this real exchange rate appreciation has adversely affected Nepal’s exports, especially to third-country markets. Nepal’s exchange rate-related export competitiveness trap provides a motivation to reconsider the current peg.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramesh C Paudel & Paul J Burke, 2015. "Exchange rate policy and export performance in a landlocked developing country: The case of Nepal," Departmental Working Papers 2015-05, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2015-05
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    Cited by:

    1. Mukunda Adhikari & Zhiguo Ma, 2022. "The Belt and Road Initiative as a Gateway to the Sea for Land-Locked Countries: With Reference to Nepal," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.
    2. Tomoya Suzuki, 2019. "Counterfactual Inflation Targeting in Nepal," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(2), pages 97-117, December.
    3. Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter & Alimi, Olorunfemi Yasiru & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of exchange rate on trade balance and output growth," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    4. Manoranjan Sahoo, 2018. "Exchange Rate and Service Exports from India: A Nonlinear ARDL Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1090-1101.
    5. Li, Jie & Lan, Liping & Ouyang, Zhigang, 2020. "Credit constraints, currency depreciation and international trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    6. Bhatta, Guna Raj & Nepal, Rabindra & Harvie, Charles & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2022. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity condition in a small open economy: A state space modelling approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Ekundayo P. Mesagan & Olorunfemi Y. Alimi & Ismaila A. Yusuf, 2018. "Macroeconomic Implications of Exchange Rate Depreciation: The Nigerian Experience," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 16(3 (Fall)), pages 235-258.
    8. Salamat Ali, 2020. "Exchange Rate Effects on Agricultural Exports: Transaction‐Level Evidence from Pakistan," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 1020-1044, May.
    9. Ramesh C. Paudel, 2019. "Exports Performance of Nepal: What Can Be Done?," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(5), pages 92-103, September.
    10. Rosmaiza A. Ghani & Michael P. Cameron & William Cochrane & Matthew Roskruge, 2019. "A Gravity Model Estimation of the Bi-Directional Relationship between International Trade and Migration," Working Papers in Economics 19/02, University of Waikato.
    11. Sharma, Rishi R., 2023. "An anatomy of Nepal’s remarkable export decline: A note," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. Salamat Ali, 2017. "Exchange Rate Effects on Agricultural Exports: Firm-level Evidence from Pakistan," Discussion Papers 2017-09, University of Nottingham, GEP.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    export performance; real exchange rate; gravity model; Nepal; landlocked;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

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