IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v61y2021i5p5965-5997.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is information really efficient for the market? Evidence of confirmatory bias in China

Author

Listed:
  • Qingchong Chen
  • Xiong Xiong
  • Ya Gao

Abstract

We use the earnings forecast revisions during the period 2005–2019 to study the performance of confirmatory bias in China. As we have found, analysts are less likely to make earnings forecast revisions when the latest two signals are opposite or different from their previous beliefs. In addition, we find confirmatory bias has a significantly positive influence on analysts' forecast dispersions, especially when new signals are negative. Finally, we extend the practical significance by combining confirmatory bias with pricing efficiency and find significant harms, especially in bull markets. Uninformed investors and market supervisors should take precautions to avoid this bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Qingchong Chen & Xiong Xiong & Ya Gao, 2021. "Is information really efficient for the market? Evidence of confirmatory bias in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(5), pages 5965-5997, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:61:y:2021:i:5:p:5965-5997
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.12861
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12861
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/acfi.12861?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cen, Ling & Hilary, Gilles & Wei, K. C. John, 2013. "The Role of Anchoring Bias in the Equity Market: Evidence from Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 47-76, February.
    2. Gao, Ya & Han, Xing & Li, Youwei & Xiong, Xiong, 2021. "Investor heterogeneity and momentum-based trading strategies in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar‐Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
    4. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    5. Chang, Yen-Cheng & Cheng, Hung-Wen, 2015. "Information environment and investor behavior," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 250-264.
    6. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
    7. Jiang, George J. & Lu, Liangliang & Zhu, Dongming, 2014. "The information content of analyst recommendation revisions — Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-17.
    8. Kewei Hou & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2005. "Market Frictions, Price Delay, and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 981-1020.
    9. Xu, Nianhang & Chan, Kam C. & Jiang, Xuanyu & Yi, Zhihong, 2013. "Do star analysts know more firm-specific information? Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 89-102.
    10. Arturo Bris & William N. Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2007. "Efficiency and the Bear: Short Sales and Markets Around the World," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1029-1079, June.
    11. Shuyu Zhang & Xuanyu Zhou & Huifeng Pan & Junyi Jia, 2019. "Cryptocurrency, confirmatory bias and news readability – evidence from the largest Chinese cryptocurrency exchange," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1445-1468, March.
    12. Cafferata, Alessia & Tramontana, Fabio, 2019. "A financial market model with confirmation bias," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 252-259.
    13. Jiao, Peiran & Veiga, André & Walther, Ansgar, 2020. "Social media, news media and the stock market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 63-90.
    14. Shane A. Corwin & Paul Schultz, 2012. "A Simple Way to Estimate Bid‐Ask Spreads from Daily High and Low Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 719-760, April.
    15. Moshirian, Fariborz & Ng, David & Wu, Eliza, 2009. "The value of stock analysts' recommendations: Evidence from emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 74-83, March.
    16. Alan Beggs & Kathryn Graddy, 2009. "Anchoring Effects: Evidence from Art Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1027-1039, June.
    17. Chau Duong & Gioia Pescetto & Daniel Santamaria, 2014. "How value-glamour investors use financial information: UK evidence of investors' confirmation bias," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 524-549, June.
    18. Pedro A. C. Saffi & Kari Sigurdsson, 2011. "Price Efficiency and Short Selling," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 821-852.
    19. Millicent Chang & Liyin Hooi & Marvin Wee & Peter Clarkson, 2014. "How does investor relations disclosure affect analysts' forecasts?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(2), pages 365-391, June.
    20. Bryan Fong, 2021. "Analysing the behavioural finance impact of 'fake news' phenomena on financial markets: a representative agent model and empirical validation," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, December.
    21. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Kim, Woojin, 2006. "Value of analyst recommendations: International evidence," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 274-309, August.
    22. Sebastien Pouget & Julien Sauvagnat & Stephane Villeneuve, 2017. "A Mind Is a Terrible Thing to Change: Confirmatory Bias in Financial Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 2066-2109.
    23. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1247-1292, August.
    24. Jiahua Xu & Lan Zou, 2019. "The impact of CEO pay and its disclosure on stock price crash risk: evidence from China," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 479-497, July.
    25. Xiong Xiong & Ya Gao & Xu Feng, 2017. "Successive short‐selling ban lifts and gradual price efficiency: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(5), pages 1557-1604, December.
    26. Mao He & Juncheng Huang & Hongquan Zhu, 2020. "Heterogeneous beliefs and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: evidence from China," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(1), pages 124-141, August.
    27. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    30. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1345-1365 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. William J. Mayew & Mohan Venkatachalam, 2012. "The Power of Voice: Managerial Affective States and Future Firm Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 1-44, February.
    32. Ekkehart Boehmer & Juan (Julie) Wu, 2013. "Short Selling and the Price Discovery Process," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 287-322.
    33. Mark Bowden, 2015. "A model of information flows and confirmatory bias in financial markets," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 38(2), pages 197-215, October.
    34. Kim, Karam & Ryu, Doojin & Yang, Heejin, 2021. "Information uncertainty, investor sentiment, and analyst reports," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    35. José María Liberti & Mitchell A Petersen, 2019. "Information: Hard and Soft," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 1-41.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hao Li & Zhisheng Li, 2022. "The effect of daily price limits on stock liquidity: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(5), pages 4885-4917, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wan, Xiaoyuan, 2024. "Margin-buying, short-selling, and stock valuation: Why is the effect reversed over time in China?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Massa, Massimo & von Beschwitz, Bastian, 2015. "Biased Shorts: Stock Market Implications of Short Sellers? Disposition Effect," CEPR Discussion Papers 10535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Dayong Lv & Wenfeng Wu, 2020. "Margin trading and price efficiency: information content or price‐adjustment speed?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2889-2918, September.
    4. Massimo Massa & Bastian von Beschwitz, 2015. "Biased Shorts: Short sellers’ Disposition Effect and Limits to Arbitrage," International Finance Discussion Papers 1147, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. von Beschwitz, Bastian & Massa, Massimo, 2020. "Biased short: Short sellers' disposition effect and limits to arbitrage," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    6. He, Qing & Fang, Cai, 2019. "Regulatory sanctions and stock pricing efficiency: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Dagmar Linnertová, 2017. "How Did Short Sale Ban Affect German Capital Market Risk?," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(6), pages 2017-2024.
    8. Fan, Yi & Gao, Yang, 2024. "Short selling, informational efficiency, and extreme stock price adjustment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1009-1028.
    9. Oleg Chuprinin & Massimo Massa & Bastian von Beschwitz, 2015. "Why Do Short Sellers Like Qualitative News?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1149, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Hsin, Chin-Wen & Peng, Shu-Cing, 2023. "Investor propensity to speculate and price delay in emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Cereda, Fábio & Chague, Fernando & De-Losso, Rodrigo & Genaro, Alan & Giovannetti, Bruno, 2022. "Price transparency in OTC equity lending markets: Evidence from a loan fee benchmark," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 569-592.
    12. Pascal Busch & Stefan Obernberger, 2017. "Actual Share Repurchases, Price Efficiency, and the Information Content of Stock Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 324-362.
    13. Alves, Carlos & Mendes, Victor & Silva, Paulo Pereira da, 2016. "Analysis of market quality before and during short-selling bans," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 252-268.
    14. von Beschwitz, Bastian & Chuprinin, Oleg & Massa, Massimo, 2017. "Why Do Short Sellers Like Qualitative News?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 645-675, April.
    15. Wan, Xiaoyuan, 2020. "The impact of short-selling and margin-buying on liquidity: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 104-118.
    16. Jia, Yuecheng & Simkins, Betty & Feng, Hongrui, 2023. "Political connections and short sellers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    17. Zhang, Yuan-Yuan & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2022. "The impact of institutional analyst forecast divergence on crude oil market: Evidence from the mixed frequency models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Caginalp, Gunduz & DeSantis, Mark, 2017. "Does price efficiency increase with trading volume? Evidence of nonlinearity and power laws in ETFs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 436-452.
    19. Kumar, Alok, 2007. "Do the diversification choices of individual investors influence stock returns?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 362-390, November.
    20. Hou, Yang & Meng, Jiayin, 2018. "The momentum effect in the Chinese market and its relationship with the simultaneous and the lagged investor sentiment," MPRA Paper 94838, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:61:y:2021:i:5:p:5965-5997. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.