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Convergence and Stability in US Regional Employment

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Glyn
  • Robert Rowthorn
  • Faculty of Economics and Politics
  • Cambridge University

Abstract

It is widely believed that regional labour markets in the USA are highly flexible, so that employment shocks have only transitory effects on joblessness since induced migration quickly offsets much of the initial impact. However time-series analysis of the response to shocks is very sensitive to errors of measurement in labour market data, and such errors are large in some widely used series which depend on household surveys of limited size. Adjusting for the likelihood magnitude of such errors with some novel statistical approaches, and using a range of data sources, we show that the responsiveness of employment rates to shocks has been rather weak in the USA over the past 30 years, though probably stronger in the 1950s and 1960s. This suggests that flexible regional adjustment is not a major factor behind the contemporary success of monetary union in the USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Glyn & Robert Rowthorn & Faculty of Economics and Politics & Cambridge University, 2002. "Convergence and Stability in US Regional Employment," Economics Series Working Papers 92, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:92
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy J. Bartik, "undated". "Who Benefits from Local Job Growth: Migrants or Original Residents?," Upjohn Working Papers tjb1993rs, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Giovanni Peri, 1998. "Regional non-adjustment and fiscal policy," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 206-259.
    3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    4. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2013. "Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(22), pages 5711-5722.
    2. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & M. Rose Olfert & Ying Tan, 2015. "When Spatial Equilibrium Fails: Is Place-Based Policy Second Best?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1303-1325, August.
    3. Natalia PRESSMAN & Vadim KLEPFISH, 2008. "Regional Unemployment Rate Convergence in Israel," EcoMod2008 23800110, EcoMod.
    4. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2011. "The NRU and the Evolution of Regional Disparities in Spanish Unemployment," Documentos de trabajo - Analise Economica 0043, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.
    5. David McArthur & Inge Thorsen, 2011. "Determinants of internal migration in Norway," ERSA conference papers ersa10p532, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Bayer Christian & Jüßen Falko, 2007. "Convergence in West German Regional Unemployment Rates," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 510-535, December.
    7. Michael W. L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2010. "The Labor Market in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    8. Partridge, Mark & Betz, Mike, 2012. "Country Road Take Me Home: Migration Patterns in the Appalachia America and Place-Based Policy," MPRA Paper 38293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. James R. Hines Jr., 2010. "State Fiscal Policies and Transitory Income Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 313-350.
    10. David Philip Mcarthur & Inge Thorsen & Jan Ubøe, 2010. "A Micro‐Simulation Approach to Modelling Spatial Unemployment Disparities," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 374-402, September.
    11. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Native Internal Migration and the Labor Market Impact of Immigration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 10, pages 275-312, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2014. "Spanish Regional Unemployment Revisited: The Role of Capital Accumulation," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(11), pages 1863-1883, November.
    13. repec:bla:germec:v:8:y:2007:i::p:510-535 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    regional employment; convergence; measurement errors; regional adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • N9 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics

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