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Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space

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  • Holmes, Mark J.
  • Otero, Jesús
  • Panagiotidis, Theodore

Abstract

This paper provides evidence that unemployment rates across US states are stationary and therefore behave according to the natural rate hypothesis. We provide new insights by considering the effect of key variables on the speed of adjustment associated with unemployment shocks. A highly-dimensional VAR analysis of the half-lives associated with shocks to unemployment rates in pairs of states suggests that the distance between states and vacancy rates respectively exert a positive and negative influence. We find that higher homeownership rates do not lead to higher half-lives. When the symmetry assumption is relaxed through quantile regression, support for the Oswald hypothesis through a positive relationship between homeownership rates and half-lives is found at the higher quantiles.

Suggested Citation

  • Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2013. "Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(22), pages 5711-5722.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:22:p:5711-5722
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.07.023
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    2. Wooi Chen Khoo & Kim Leng Yeah & Shun Yi Hong, 2022. "Modeling unemployment duration, determinants and insurance premium pricing of Malaysia: insights from an upper middle-income developing country," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-25, August.
    3. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2016. "Financial market impact on the real economy: An assessment of asymmetries and volatility linkages between the stock market and unemployment rate," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-7.
    4. Lahmiri, Salim, 2017. "Cointegration and causal linkages in fertilizer markets across different regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 181-189.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Market integration; Speed of adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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