IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emffin/v7y2008i2p169-196.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Weak-Form Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets of Developing Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Guneratne B Wickremasinghe

    (Guneratne B Wickremasinghe is Senior Lecturer, School of Accounting and Finance and the Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, PO Box 14428, Melbourne, VIC 8001, Australia. Email: guneratne.wickremasinghe@vu.edu.au)

  • Jae H Kim

    (Jae H Kim is Senior Lecturer, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, Caulfield East, VIC 3145, Australia. Email: Jae.kim@buseco.monash.edu.au)

Abstract

This study examines the empirical validity of the weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) for the foreign exchange market of Sri Lanka, using a battery of (univariate and panel) unit root tests, including those that allow for structural breaks. Monthly exchange rates for four major currencies (Indian rupee, UK pound, US dollar and Japanese yen) vis–à –vis the Sri Lankan rupee are considered in the empirical analysis. The results indicate that the four exchange rates studied follow a random walk, thus supporting the validity of the weak-form EMH. These results have strong implications for the participants of the foreign exchange market of Sri Lanka and government policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Guneratne B Wickremasinghe & Jae H Kim, 2008. "Weak-Form Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets of Developing Economies," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 7(2), pages 169-196, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:7:y:2008:i:2:p:169-196
    DOI: 10.1177/097265270800700203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/097265270800700203
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/097265270800700203?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. M. Ahmed & M. I. Ansari, 1997. "Modelling the efficiency of the Canadian foreign exchange market: a bivariate transfer function analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 63-70.
    2. repec:bla:ecorec:v:74:y:1998:i:225:p:139-44 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1982. "In search of the exchange risk premium: A six-currency test assuming mean-variance optimization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 255-274, January.
    4. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
    5. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    6. Lajaunie, John P & McManis, Bruce L & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1996. "Further Evidence on Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency: An Application of Cointegration Tests," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 553-564, August.
    7. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe, 2004. "Efficiency Of Foreign Exchange Markets: A Developing Country Perspective," International Finance 0406004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    11. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    12. Gupta, Sanjeev, 1981. "A Note on the Efficiency of Black Markets in Foreign Currencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 705-710, June.
    13. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    14. Baillie, Richard T & Lippens, Robert E & McMahon, Patrick C, 1983. "Testing Rational Expectations and Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 553-563, May.
    15. Swarna Dutt & Dipak Ghosh, 1999. "A note on the foreign exchange market efficiency hypothesis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 23(2), pages 157-161, June.
    16. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    17. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    18. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-287, August.
    19. Barnhart, Scott W. & McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles S., 1999. "Non-Informative Tests of the Unbiased Forward Exchange Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 265-291, June.
    20. Los, Cornelis A., 1999. "Nonparametric testing of the high-frequency efficiency of the 1997 Asian foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 265-289, November.
    21. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    22. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Reffett, Kevin L., 1996. "Exogeneity and forward rate unbiasedness," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 267-274, April.
    23. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    24. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Liu, Christina Y & He, Jia, 1991. "A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 773-785, June.
    26. Jose Sanchez-Fung, 1999. "Efficiency of the black market for foreign exchange and PPP: the case of the Dominican Republic," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 173-176.
    27. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    28. Boothe, Paul & Longworth, David, 1986. "Foreign exchange market efficiency tests: Implications of recent empirical findings," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 135-152, June.
    29. Gabjin Oh & Seunghwan Kim & Cheoljun Eom, 2006. "Market Efficiency in Foreign Exchange Markets," Papers physics/0608016, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2006.
    30. Michael Bleaney, 1998. "Market Efficiency and Apparent Unit Roots: An Application to Exchange Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(225), pages 139-144, June.
    31. H. Bhatti, Razzaque, 1997. "On Single- and Multi-Market Unbiasedness of F o rw a rd Exchange Rates: Some Evidence from Four Asian Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 12, pages 402-417.
    32. Taylor, Mark P, 1988. "A DYMIMIC Model of Forward Foreign Exchange Risk, with Estimates for Three Major Exchange Rates," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 56(1), pages 55-68, March.
    33. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    34. Edwards, Sebastian, 1983. "Floating exchange rates, expectations and new information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 321-336.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Diniz-Maganini, Natalia & Rasheed, Abdul A. & Sheng, Hsia Hua, 2021. "Exchange rate regimes and price efficiency: Empirical examination of the impact of financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Abounoori, Esmaiel & Shahrazi, Mahdi & Rasekhi, Saeed, 2012. "An investigation of Forex market efficiency based on detrended fluctuation analysis: A case study for Iran," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3170-3179.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    2. Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe, 2004. "Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market of Papua New Guinea During the Recent Float," International Trade 0406007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Eftychia Tsanana & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2014. "Do Balkan economies catch up with EU? New evidence from panel unit root analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 641-662, November.
    4. Durusu-Ciftci, Dilek & Ispir, M. Serdar & Kok, Dundar, 2019. "Do stock markets follow a random walk? New evidence for an old question," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 165-175.
    5. Ogali, Oscar I.O. & Okoro, Emeka E. & Olafuyi, Saburi G., 2023. "Assessing consensus on nexus between natural gas consumption and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    6. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel, 2009. "Random walk and efficiency tests in the Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the post-Asian currency crisis data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 322-338, September.
    7. Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe, 2004. "Efficiency Of Foreign Exchange Markets: A Developing Country Perspective," International Finance 0406004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    9. Pourazarm, Elham & Cooray, Arusha, 2013. "Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 546-558.
    10. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Se Chien, 2011. "Empirical Modelling of Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(10), pages 2029-2047, August.
    11. Xanthippi Chapsa & Nikolaos Tabakis & Athanasios L. Athanasenas, 2018. "Investigating the Catching-Up Hypothesis Using Panel Unit Root Tests: Evidence from the PIIGS," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 250-271.
    12. Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E. & Caporin, Massimilano, 2022. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices and Production on Drilling Rig Trajectory: A correction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Christos Kollias & Petros Messis, 2020. "Are future enlargement candidate countries converging with the EU?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 453-473, August.
    15. Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Pao Wu & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Are house prices in South Africa really nonstationary? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 32-53, January.
    16. Valérie Mignon & Christophe Hurlin, 2005. "Une synthèse des tests de racine unitaire sur données de panel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 253-294.
    17. Jun, Sangjoon, 2015. "The Nexus between FDI and Growth in the SAARC Member Countries," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 19(1), pages 39-70, March.
    18. Litsios, Ioannis & Pilbeam, Keith, 2017. "An empirical analysis of the nexus between investment, fiscal balances and current account balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 143-152.
    19. Costantini, Valeria & Martini, Chiara, 2010. "The causality between energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-sectoral analysis using non-stationary cointegrated panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 591-603, May.
    20. Evangelia Papapetrou & Dimitrios Bakas, 2012. "Unemployment in Greece: evidence from Greek regions," Working Papers 146, Bank of Greece.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Efficient market hypothesis; exchange rates; unit root tests; panel data; structural breaks; JEL Classification: F31; JEL Classification: G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:7:y:2008:i:2:p:169-196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ifmr.ac.in .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.