What if there were a moratorium on new housebuilding? An exploratory study with London-based housing associations

The shortage of social housing is a crucial element of the UK housing crisis. In England, social rented housing provision significantly relies on market homes construction, with detrimental impacts on residents and the environment. Moratoria are often cited in the degrowth literature as policy tools supporting strategies to break free from growth-driven mechanisms and achieve high levels of well-being while reducing environmental pressures. However, the systemic effects of such a policy on housing and its potential drawbacks are at present understudied. This study explores the extent to which a moratorium on new construction in the housing sector would be an effective, desirable, and feasible policy to address the shortage of good quality social housing. We used existing causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to formulate qualitative hypotheses on the effects of a moratorium on the structures underpinning the construction and demolition of social housing estates. We then explored perceived obstacles or opportunities to its uptake in a workshop with four housing associations, the largest providers of social housing in England. Our CLDs suggest that a moratorium could help to address the growth-dependent mechanisms of social housing provision, with systemic benefits for both social tenants and housing associations. However, the workshop revealed that its adoption would depend on whether the maintenance, repair, and retrofit of the existing stock could offset the perceived advantages of new construction (e.g., quality, quantity, adequacy). Through the use of systems thinking tools, our findings support dialogue around alternatives to the growth-dependent paradigm undermining housing provision within planetary boundaries.