IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolec/v221y2024ics0921800924001058.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrating modelling-based and stakeholder-focused scenario approaches to close the planning gap and accelerate low-carbon transitions

Author

Listed:
  • Derbyshire, James

Abstract

While many transition scenarios describe potential low-carbon systems, few link these system-level outcomes to the microlevel stakeholder decision-making needed to actualise them, resulting in a ‘planning gap’. Closing this gap requires that insights from modelling-based transition scenarios on what must happen to achieve climate targets are linked to those on how to make it happen from stakeholder-focused transition scenarios. This link requires a different understanding of decision-making rationality from that of a representative agent with rational expectations, as employed in much climate-change modelling currently. Rationality conceived as ‘frame-sensitive reasoning’ can better account for heterogenous stakeholders' alternative preferences, the actions they take in pursuit of them, and the effect of these actions on low-carbon transitions. This paper augments the Intuitive Logics (IL) stakeholder-focused scenario approach to enable frame-sensitive reasoning and provide modelling-based transition scenarios with realistic innovation-diffusion assumptions. In so doing, the paper assists in closing the planning gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Derbyshire, James, 2024. "Integrating modelling-based and stakeholder-focused scenario approaches to close the planning gap and accelerate low-carbon transitions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:221:y:2024:i:c:s0921800924001058
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108208
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800924001058
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108208?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Culham, 2023. "Time, equilibrium and uncertainty: Bergson and Robinson," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 47(5), pages 909-930.
    2. Fortes, Patrícia & Alvarenga, António & Seixas, Júlia & Rodrigues, Sofia, 2015. "Long-term energy scenarios: Bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy modeling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 161-178.
    3. J. -F. Mercure & H. Pollitt & A. M. Bassi & J. E Vi~nuales & N. R. Edwards, 2015. "Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy," Papers 1506.07432, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    4. Roberts, Cameron & Geels, Frank W., 2019. "Conditions for politically accelerated transitions: Historical institutionalism, the multi-level perspective, and two historical case studies in transport and agriculture," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 221-240.
    5. Mahlalela, Linda Siphiwo & Jourdain, Damien & Mungatana, Eric Dada & Lundhede, Thomas Hedemark, 2022. "Diverse stakeholder perspectives and ecosystem services ranking: Application of the Q-methodology to Hawane Dam and Nature Reserve in Eswatini," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    6. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Martiskainen, Mari, 2020. "Hot transformations: Governing rapid and deep household heating transitions in China, Denmark, Finland and the United Kingdom," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    8. Sauermann, Henry & Vohland, Katrin & Antoniou, Vyron & Balázs, Bálint & Göbel, Claudia & Karatzas, Kostas & Mooney, Peter & Perelló, Josep & Ponti, Marisa & Samson, Roeland & Winter, Silvia, 2020. "Citizen science and sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(5).
    9. Derbyshire, James & Morgan, Jamie, 2022. "Is seeking certainty in climate sensitivity measures counterproductive in the context of climate emergency? The case for scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    10. Geels, Frank W., 2010. "Ontologies, socio-technical transitions (to sustainability), and the multi-level perspective," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 495-510, May.
    11. Turnheim, Bruno & Nykvist, Björn, 2019. "Opening up the feasibility of sustainability transitions pathways (STPs): Representations, potentials, and conditions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 775-788.
    12. Sundqvist-Andberg, Henna & Åkerman, Maria, 2022. "Collaborative governance as a means of navigating the uncertainties of sustainability transformations: The case of Finnish food packaging," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    13. zu Ermgassen, Sophus & Drewniok, Michal & Bull, Joseph & Walker, Christine Corlet & Mancini, Mattia & Ryan-Collins, Josh & Serrenho, André Cabrera, 2022. "A home for all within planetary boundaries: pathways for meeting England’s housing needs without transgressing national climate and biodiversity goals," OSF Preprints 5kxce, Center for Open Science.
    14. Robin Gregory & Ralph L. Keeney, 1994. "Creating Policy Alternatives Using Stakeholder Values," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(8), pages 1035-1048, August.
    15. Bujosa, Angel & Torres, Cati & Riera, Antoni, 2018. "Framing Decisions in Uncertain Scenarios: An Analysis of Tourist Preferences in the Face of Global Warming," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 36-42.
    16. Jamie Morgan, 2020. "Electric vehicles: the future we made and the problem of unmaking it," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(4), pages 953-977.
    17. ., 1999. "Bounded rationality," Chapters, in: The Economics of the Mind, chapter 4, pages 41-49, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Heiberg, Jonas & Truffer, Bernhard & Binz, Christian, 2022. "Assessing transitions through socio-technical configuration analysis – a methodological framework and a case study in the water sector," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1).
    19. repec:cup:judgdm:v:4:y:2009:i:6:p:492-508 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Hughes, Nick, 2013. "Towards improving the relevance of scenarios for public policy questions: A proposed methodological framework for policy relevant low carbon scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 687-698.
    21. Frank M. Bass & Trichy V. Krishnan & Dipak C. Jain, 1994. "Why the Bass Model Fits without Decision Variables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(3), pages 203-223.
    22. March, Hug & Therond, Olivier & Leenhardt, Delphine, 2012. "Water futures: Reviewing water-scenario analyses through an original interpretative framework," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 126-137.
    23. Nilsson, Måns & Nykvist, Björn, 2016. "Governing the electric vehicle transition – Near term interventions to support a green energy economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1360-1371.
    24. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    25. Wright, George & Bradfield, Ron & Cairns, George, 2013. "Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 631-642.
    26. Ananda, Jayanath & Proctor, Wendy, 2013. "Collaborative approaches to water management and planning: An institutional perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 97-106.
    27. zu Ermgassen, Sophus O.S.E. & Drewniok, Michal P. & Bull, Joseph W. & Corlet Walker, Christine M. & Mancini, Mattia & Ryan-Collins, Josh & Cabrera Serrenho, André, 2022. "A home for all within planetary boundaries: Pathways for meeting England's housing needs without transgressing national climate and biodiversity goals," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    28. Morgan, J. & Chu, C.M. & Haines-Doran, T., 2023. "Competent retrofitting policy and inflation resilience: The cheapest energy is that which you don't use," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    29. Cairns, George & Goodwin, Paul & Wright, George, 2016. "A decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1050-1062.
    30. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    31. Broad, Oliver & Hawker, Graeme & Dodds, Paul E., 2020. "Decarbonising the UK residential sector: The dependence of national abatement on flexible and local views of the future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    32. Gregory L. Keeney & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2010. "Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of Terrorists," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(12), pages 1803-1816, December.
    33. Rosenbloom, Daniel & Berton, Harris & Meadowcroft, James, 2016. "Framing the sun: A discursive approach to understanding multi-dimensional interactions within socio-technical transitions through the case of solar electricity in Ontario, Canada," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1275-1290.
    34. Akgün, Aliye Ahu & van Leeuwen, Eveline & Nijkamp, Peter, 2012. "A multi-actor multi-criteria scenario analysis of regional sustainable resource policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 19-28.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James Derbyshire, 2020. "Answers to questions on uncertainty in geography: Old lessons and new scenario tools," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(4), pages 710-727, June.
    2. Mercure, Jean-François, 2018. "Fashion, fads and the popularity of choices: Micro-foundations for diffusion consumer theory," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 194-207.
    3. Gruber, Mario, 2020. "An evolutionary perspective on adoption-diffusion theory," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 535-541.
    4. Huaccha, Gissell, 2023. "Regional persistence of the energy efficiency gap: Evidence from England and Wales," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    5. Geels, Frank W., 2020. "Micro-foundations of the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions: Developing a multi-dimensional model of agency through crossovers between social constructivism, evolutionary economics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Derbyshire, James & Giovannetti, Emanuele, 2017. "Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: Mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 334-344.
    7. Morgan, J. & Chu, C.M. & Haines-Doran, T., 2023. "Competent retrofitting policy and inflation resilience: The cheapest energy is that which you don't use," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. J.-F. Mercure & A. Lam & S. Billington & H. Pollitt, 2018. "Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 ∘C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 109-129, November.
    9. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Huaccha, Gissell, 2023. "Who bears the energy cost? Local income deprivation and the household energy efficiency gap," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    10. Amorim-Lopes, Mário & Oliveira, Mónica & Raposo, Mariana & Cardoso-Grilo, Teresa & Alvarenga, António & Barbas, Marta & Alves, Marco & Vieira, Ana & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana, 2021. "Enhancing optimization planning models for health human resources management with foresight," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    11. Wu, Zhanglan & Shao, Qinglong & Su, Yantao & Zhang, Dan, 2021. "A socio-technical transition path for new energy vehicles in China: A multi-level perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    12. Frank M. Bass, 2004. "Comments on "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables The Bass Model"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1833-1840, December.
    13. Florian Knobloch & Hector Pollitt & Unnada Chewpreecha & Vassilis Daioglou & Jean-Francois Mercure, 2017. "Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5C," Papers 1710.11019, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
    14. Verrier, Brunilde & Strachan, Neil, 2024. "Sunset and sunrise business strategies shaping national energy transitions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    15. Yuri Peers & Dennis Fok & Philip Hans Franses, 2012. "Modeling Seasonality in New Product Diffusion," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 351-364, March.
    16. Constanza Fosco, 2012. "Spatial Difusion and Commuting Flows," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 30, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
    17. Guseo, Renato, 2016. "Diffusion of innovations dynamics, biological growth and catenary function," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 464(C), pages 1-10.
    18. Toka, Agorasti & Iakovou, Eleftherios & Vlachos, Dimitrios & Tsolakis, Naoum & Grigoriadou, Anastasia-Loukia, 2014. "Managing the diffusion of biomass in the residential energy sector: An illustrative real-world case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 56-69.
    19. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter & Phillips, Richard, 2017. "‘Branching scenarios’ seeking articulated action for regional regeneration – A case study of limited success," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 189-202.
    20. Geels, Frank W. & Ayoub, Martina, 2023. "A socio-technical transition perspective on positive tipping points in climate change mitigation: Analysing seven interacting feedback loops in offshore wind and electric vehicles acceleration," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:221:y:2024:i:c:s0921800924001058. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.