What if there were a moratorium on new housebuilding? An exploratory study with London-based housing associations

The shortage of social housing is a crucial element of the UK housing crisis. In England, social housing provision significantly relies on market homes construction, with detrimental impacts on residents and the environment. Moratoria are often cited in the degrowth literature as policy tools to break free from growth-driven mechanisms and achieve high levels of well-being while reducing environmental pressures. However, the systemic effects of such a policy on housing and its potential drawbacks are at present understudied. This study explores the extent to which a moratorium on new housebuilding would be effective, desirable, and feasible; for this purpose, it focuses on its impact on the provision of social homes. We used causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to formulate dynamic hypotheses on the effects of a moratorium on the structures underpinning the construction and demolition of social housing estates. In a workshop with four London-based housing associations, we discussed perceived obstacles or opportunities to its uptake. Our CLDs suggest that a moratorium could help to address the growth-dependent mechanisms of social housing provision, with systemic benefits for both tenants and housing associations. However, the workshop revealed that its adoption would depend on whether the maintenance, repair, and retrofit of the existing stock could offset the perceived advantages of new construction (e.g., quality, quantity, adequacy). Through the use of systems thinking tools, our findings support dialogue around alternatives to the growth-dependent paradigm undermining housing provision within planetary boundaries.