Too Hot to Learn? Evidence from High School Dropouts in Brazil

This paper examines the impact of cumulative heat exposure on dropout rates for K10-12 students across Brazil, using data from over 30,000 schools and 80 million enrollments between 2007 and 2016. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in the share of days above 34°C raises dropout rates by 0.36 percentage points, representing a 5.1% increase in the average dropout rate. The effects are concentrated in public schools, particularly in urban areas, where poor infrastructure amplifies the impact of heat. In contrast, private schools show no significant effects, likely due to better resources, such as air conditioning. These findings highlight the need to improve learning environments, particularly in public schools, to help students cope with rising temperatures and reduce dropout rates and educational inequality.