IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ofr/wpaper/16-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Market-implied Probability of European Government Intervention in Distressed Banks

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Neuberg

    (Columbia University)

  • Paul Glasserman

    (Columbia University)

  • Benjamin Kay

    (Office of Financial Research)

  • Sriram Rajan

    (Office of Financial Research)

Abstract

New contract terms for credit default swaps (CDS) on banks were introduced in 2014 to cover losses from government intervention and related bail-in events. For many large European banks, CDS spreads are available under both the old and new contract terms; the difference (or basis) between the two spreads measures the market price of protection against losses from certain government actions to resolve distressed banks. We investigate cross-sectional and time series properties of this basis, relative to each bank's CDS spread. We interpret a general decline in the relative basis as a market price-based signal that governments are less likely to bailout banks in distress, but that banks do not yet have sufficient bail-in debt to protect senior bond holders in case of a credit event.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Neuberg & Paul Glasserman & Benjamin Kay & Sriram Rajan, 2016. "The Market-implied Probability of European Government Intervention in Distressed Banks," Working Papers 16-10, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:ofr:wpaper:16-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/files/OFRwp-2016-10_Market-Implied-Probability-EU-Intervention-Distressed-Banks.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schnabel, Isabel & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice & Schäfer, Alexander, 2016. "Bail-in Expectations for European Banks: Actions Speak Louder than Words," CEPR Discussion Papers 11061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends," Papers 334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    3. Schäfer, Alexander & Schnabel, Isabel & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2016. "Bail-in expectations for European banks: Actions speak louder than words," ESRB Working Paper Series 7, European Systemic Risk Board.
    4. Schäfer, Alexander & Schnabel, Isabel & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2016. "Bail-in Expectations for European Banks: Actions Speak Louder than Words," CEPR Discussion Papers 11061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    6. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    7. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    8. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    9. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Reflections on Northern Rock: The Bank Run That Heralded the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 101-119, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Martin Indergand & Gabriela Hrasko, 2021. "Does the market believe in loss-absorbing bank debt?," Working Papers 2021-13, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Office of Financial Research (ed.), 2016. "2016 Financial Stability Report," Reports, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, number 16-3, May.
    3. Allen N. Berger & Charles P. Himmelberg & Raluca A. Roman & Sergey Tsyplakov, 2022. "Bank bailouts, bail‐ins, or no regulatory intervention? A dynamic model and empirical tests of optimal regulation and implications for future crises," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 1031-1090, December.
    4. Thorsten Beck & Samuel Da-Rocha-Lopes & André F Silva & Francesca Cornelli, 2021. "Sharing the Pain? Credit Supply and Real Effects of Bank Bail-ins [High wage workers and high wage firms]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(4), pages 1747-1788.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mäkinen, Taneli & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2020. "Risky bank guarantees," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 490-522.
    2. Manuel Monjas & María Rocamora & Nuria Suárez, 2023. "Determinants of bail-in debt yields in the EU banking sector: a multi-country approach with idiosyncratic factors," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1055-1095, November.
    3. Vittoria Cerasi & Stefano Montoli, 2020. "Bank resolution and multinational banks," Working Papers 447, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2020.
    4. Li, Shanshan & Lu, Liping, 2023. "No-bailout event and local bank-government nexus in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Vittoria Cerasi & Paola Galfrascoli, 2021. "Bail-in and Bank Funding Costs," Working Papers 472, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2021.
    6. Cerasi, Vittoria & Galfrascoli, Paola, 2023. "Bail-in and bank funding costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Eero Tölö & Esa Jokivuolle & Matti Viren, 2021. "Have Too-Big-to-Fail Expectations Diminished? Evidence from the European Overnight Interbank Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 25-54, August.
    8. Ramaprasad Bhar, 2010. "Stochastic Filtering with Applications in Finance," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7736, December.
    9. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Lambe, Brendan John, 2015. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive CDS spreads?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 447-458.
    10. Fiordelisi, Franco & Minnucci, Federica & Previati, Daniele & Ricci, Ornella, 2020. "Bail-in regulation and stock market reaction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    11. Li, Shanshan & Gong, Di & Lu, Liping, 2024. "Bail-ins and market discipline: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 51-68.
    12. Steven Li, 2003. "A valuation model for firms with stochastic earnings," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 229-243.
    13. Becchetti, Leonardo & Carpentieri, Andrea & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2009. "The determinants of option-adjusted delta credit spreads : a comparative analysis of the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 34/2009, Bank of Finland.
    14. Robert F. Engle & Martin Klint Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2012. "And Now, The Rest of the News: Volatility and Firm Specific News Arrival," CREATES Research Papers 2012-56, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    15. Cutura, Jannic Alexander, 2021. "Debt holder monitoring and implicit guarantees: Did the BRRD improve market discipline?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Minjoo Kim & Yang Zhao, 2015. "Correlated Defaults of UK Banks: Dynamics and Asymmetries," Working Papers 2015_24, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    17. Pu, Xiaoling & Zhao, Xinlei, 2012. "Correlation in credit risk changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1093-1106.
    18. Da Fonseca, José & Gottschalk, Katrin, 2014. "Cross-hedging strategies between CDS spreads and option volatility during crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 386-400.
    19. Guha, Rajiv & Sbuelz, Alessandro & Tarelli, Andrea, 2020. "Structural recovery of face value at default," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(3), pages 1148-1171.
    20. Chamizo, Álvaro & Fonollosa, Alexandre & Novales, Alfonso, 2019. "Forward-looking asset correlations in the estimation of economic capital," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 264-288.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swaps; banks; government intervention; European Bank Resolution and Recovery Directive;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ofr:wpaper:16-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gregory Feldberg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ofrgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.